International call traffic grew an estimated 5% in 2014 to 569 billion minutes, and while growth is slowing, emerging markets are making up for declines in advanced economies, according to TeleGeography.
While in 2000, two thirds of international calls were made to people in advanced economies, today the percentages have flipped, the research firm said.
Traffic to mobiles in emerging markets grew at an annualized rate of 32% between 2000 and 2013, compared to a mere 4% growth in advanced economies. Mobile phones in emerging markets now account for 63% of all terminated international telecom traffic.
But even here, growth rates are starting to slow, with TeleGeography estimating that traffic to mobiles in emerging markets grew just 9% in 2013.
“The long boom in traffic to emerging markets was driven by rapidly increasing mobile phone penetration and declining call prices,” TeleGeography analyst Cody Williams said.
“However, phone penetration is nearing 100% in many emerging market countries and, after years of price declines, the incremental effects of further price reductions are also diminishing.”
Globally, international call traffic has quadrupled since 2000, but price declines and growing OTT substitution is threatening the market.
But TeleGeography does not expect the PSTN market to evaporate any time soon, noting that there are around 8.3 billion fixed and mobile subscriptions globally.