The way in which the world communicates has changed more in the last decade than in all previous history. In 1999, more than a century after its invention, less than one in six people in the world had access to a telephone of any kind. This year, seven in ten people have a mobile phone.
According to IBM's 2009 global consumer survey, after their homes most consumers list the mobile phone and broadband as the next two essentials they are most unlikely to give up. In emerging markets the mobile has even become the single most transformative tool for development - delivering public information and advisory services to rural communities as well as mobile payments and money transfer services in countries where banking services are often under-developed.
Emerging markets demonstrated their ability to make profits from low ARPU users. In 2008, average EBITDA levels for the mobile telecom industry in South Asia ranged from 45-65%, with ARPU levels below $5. This was driven, in part, by significant increases in minutes of use and innovative cost-management models. For example between Q3 2008 and Q4 2009, Bharti roughly doubled the total volume of traffic on its network, from over 65 billion to 130 billion minutes per quarter.
However, emerging market expansion has begun to falter, just as communications revenue is stalling in advanced countries. Although increases in mobile internet usage offer a glimmer of hope - along with operational challenges - the telecom industry faces some serious questions. Where will future growth come from? How will the industry evolve? Where does the data indicate the industry is heading?
Looking out to 2015
Traditional approaches to predicting the future based on prefabricated world visions of economic and geopolitical trends are unsuitable for such a fast-changing industry as telecommunications, the evolution of which has taken many unprecedented turns over the past decade.
Giving the ongoing uncertainties, IBM undertook scenario envisioning, that enables the industry to assess alternative contrasting futures distinctly different from the present. The findings built on an extensive fact base, including interviews with 60 senior executives from nearly 40 telcos, over 7,700 consumers surveyed in nine countries, including India and China, and extensive research by the IBM Institute for Business Value.