5G connections in China to reach 428m by 2025: GSMA

29 Jun 2017

Chinese operators are on track to launch commercial 5G networks by 2020 and are expected to establish the nation as the world’s largest 5G market by 2025, Mats Granryd, director general of the GSMA, said during a keynote at the Mobile World Congress Shanghai.

5G connections in China will reach 428 million by 2025, accounting for 39% of the 1.1 billion global 5G connections expected by that point, Granryd said, citing a new study by GSMA Intelligence and the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) released Wednesday.

“In its early phase, 5G will offer an enhanced mobile broadband experience that will enable next-generation consumer services such as augmented and virtual reality, while at the same supporting mission-critical applications across a range of industry verticals,” the executive said.

Granryd said mobile operators – China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom- in China plan to run a phased testing period for 5G networks from 2017 to 2019 before launching commercially in 2020.

The trio is expected to deploy ‘standalone’ 5G networks, which will require the construction of new base stations to site 5G equipment, backhaul links and a core network.

Yet, some mobile operators in Asia are considering to deploy ‘non-standalone’ 5G networks that would run on existing infrastructure supplemented by targeted small cell deployment in areas of high density, allowing 4G and 5G services to run in parallel, the report noted.

Granryd said 4G penetration is China has increased fivefold to 61% over the two-year period to March 2017 and there remains significant headroom for 4G growth.

That said, 4G and 5G networks are expected to co-exist in China for a considerable period of time. The rate of 5G network rollout and adoption in China is also expected to be slower than it was for 4G, which Chinese operators were able to deploy rapidly earlier this decade within a mature 4G ecosystem.

Granryd added that 5G investment in China will follow a more gradual path and over a longer timeframe than 4G, roughly seven years, from 2018 to 2025 – with capex not expected to account for more than 25% of operator revenue prior to commercial launch.

In their early phase, 5G networks will concentrate on boosting the capacity of 4G networks to support rising cellular data traffic demands.

Meanwhile 5G will also enable enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB) services such as 4K/8K Ultra-HD video and augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) applications.

Though some services will require devices with new form factors, the smartphone is expected to remain the principal 5G interface at launch. The first 5G smartphones are likely to be priced at a premium to 4G models, as they will require an enhanced chipset and RF module supporting multiple sub-6 GHz, and possibly extremely high frequency bands (mmWave), as well as, potentially, a 4K or 8K screen.

Enterprise is considered to offer operators the largest incremental revenue opportunity. Key vertical markets for 5G applications include automotive and transport, logistics, energy and utilities monitoring, security, finance, healthcare, industrial and agriculture.

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