Ever since the announcements that Toshiba's MBCO was scrapping its satellite digital multimedia broadcast (S-DMB) service in Japan, SK Telecom's satellite and terrestrial DMB services in neighbouring Korea were in crisis and Germany's Mobile 3.0 digital video broadcasting-handheld (DVB-H) service was closing down, the doomsday brigade has been out in force to predict that these signal the death of mobile TV.
It probably didn't help that these announcements came in a cluster which added a certain negative momentum to what would have otherwise been isolated incidences. But to jump ahead and conclude that these failed attempts at mobile TV are proof that people simply don't want it is shortsighted at best and foolish at worst.
MBCO buckled at the 100,000 subscriber hurdle (as opposed to the forecast 1.5 million) mainly because it required buying a dedicated terminal. When digital terrestrial TV in Japan started delivering content from Japan's major broadcast networks at no-cost to cell phone handsets, MBCO's fate was sealed.
SK Telecom's TU media clocked up an impressive 13.7 million users to their free, advertising-supported DMB service and a sizeable 1.31 million to their S-DMB pay-based offering. However, TU Media has admitted that the pay-based model remains unprofitable due to the failure to secure premium content and competition of conventional TV broadcasters that have their own terrestrial DMB services. Also, even the free advertising-supported model is suffering from a lack of targeting, which made advertisers reluctant to adopt the platform.
As for Mobile 3.0, which won the DVB-H auction in Germany, was undermined by mobile operators who refused to sell DVB-H handsets as most support the alternate (and free) DVB-terrestiral effort. Mobile 3.0 had planned to charge monthly fees of as much as $10 to $15.
It's easy to spot some commonalities here. For one, all three companies were pioneers and were first to market in their respective country. MBCO was ahead of its time when it launched the world's first direct-to-handset service in October 2004.
Another theme that seems to be emerging, at least in the cases of MBCO and Mobile 3.0, is that cost is a major factor and the apparent unwillingness by subscribers to pay for the service was instrumental in their demise.
Birthing pains