Ovum’s latest mobile forecasts predict that connections will grow far faster than revenues during the next five years. Additionally, the effects of emerging market growth and intense competition worldwide will force a marked change in the behavior of mobile operators looking to thrive in 2015. This will result in operators becoming increasingly cost-focused.
Connections: emerging markets continue to drive growth, but emerging maturity is becoming more apparent
Global mobile connections are expected to reach 7.4 billion in 2015 according to our latest mobile forecasts, discussed in our report “Global mobile market outlook: 2010–15”. This reflects a CAGR of 8% from 2009 to 2015.
The drivers for continued connections growth are the “big three” Asia-Pacific markets of China, India, and Indonesia. Combined, they will contribute 2.8 billion connections by 2015, or 38% of the global total.
However, even these markets are not immune from the growing trend of “emerging maturity”. Connection growth rates will decline rapidly towards the end of the forecast period, even in previously fast-growing emerging markets.
Developed markets will see even more conservative connections growth. In such markets, only multiple data connections will stimulate connections growth.
Revenues: global economic crisis and maturity makes an impact
There is no denying that the global economic crisis has impacted revenues.
Every region has shown a marked slowdown in revenue growth between 2008 and 2009. The result is that we now expect global revenues to reach $1,000 billion in 2015, compared to 2014 in our previous forecasts.