Prediction #4 – Embedded devices: “Not even the sky is the limit”
The success in 2009 of the Amazon Kindle e-reader in North America brought into sharp focus the potentially huge market for connected devices, i.e.: hardware with wireless data connectivity pre-installed.
Expect 2010 to be the year for the hitherto-untapped connected device market to skyrocket. The networks are ready, the price of mobile chipsets continues to drop radically – and mobile operators also now understand that this market requires a different approach and a different business model than their traditional one.
Near-ubiquitous mobile broadband coverage means that anything which can be connected, will be connected. And the growth of the connected device market will only accelerate, so that by 2020 it will eclipse the traditional handset and subscription market in connections (although not in revenue).
Prediction #5 – Smartphones and applications: “What North America loses on the swings, it gains on the roundabouts”
2010 is set to be the year that North American software and hardware players steal both momentum and handset market share at the expense of the European incumbents. As the mobile industry shifts to an increasingly data-focused business model, US companies can draw upon their track record of success with the Internet, and leverage their strengths in the web, software and developer communities to dominate the mobile date space in the same way that they dominated the original fixed Internet.
We’re already seeing the likes of European companies like Nokia and Sony Ericsson losing market share to the likes of Google, Apple and RIM – both in the device and OS categories. One-time market-leading European heavyweights have seemingly lost their ability to innovate. In contrast, their American rivals are at ease with copying the Internet development model based on innovation and entrepreneurial spirit, and are forging ahead with new products and ideas.
In 2010, operators and handset makers alike in Europe will need to address this fundamental shift in power and influence to stem their losses. Nevertheless, expect North American device and Software vendors to dominate the smartphone and related software space for 2010 and beyond.