How well the Galaxy Tab sells will tell us a great deal about the likely future development of the still embryonic tablet market. Many questions remain.
For instance, can Android tablets (or other OS tablets such as the heavily rumored “BlackPad” from RIM) help build a bigger market for tablets and/or take market share from Apple as they jointly begin to erode the market for PCs and netbooks as part of a revolution in personal computing?
Will high-end versions compete effectively with the iPad or will the presumed mass market be content with low-cost Android tablets?
Or has the iPad already corralled the market for a device category that is neither one thing nor the other and which lacks a clear purchasing motivation, except for a dedicated hardcore of Apple aficionados?
Answers to these questions will only really start to be answered later in the year, by which time the Galaxy Tab, Dell Streak, and iPad will have been joined by an array of variations on the tablet theme, by multiple vendors, and right across the price spectrum.
However, with design and manufacturing of these devices well progressed – and vendor commitment becoming clear – it is now possible to make some educated guesses as to the market shape ahead.
For instance, in the initial phase we now expect considerable substitution of netbooks for tablets, but not much impact on the market for dedicated e-readers such as Amazon’s Kindle – at least not in the near term.
These scenarios and insights will be formalized in a new forecast Ovum is developing around such devices for publication during 4Q10. In the meantime, devices such as Samsung’s Galaxy Tab are providing the perfect litmus test for the tablet market’s prospects.