Consultation to increase regulatory certainty
Currently all three of Singapore’s mobile operators – SingTel, StarHub, and MobileOne – are conducting trial LTE services in the 2.6GHz band. We anticipate that during the consultation, these operators will clarify their opposition to further restrictions on the underlying technology (Wimax) for 4G deployment in the 2.3GHz and 2.6GHz bands. Due to technical limitations that make Wimax unsuitable for certain areas of Singapore, and limited device availability during the trials by the three mobile operators, Wimax has not been attractive to local players. As a result, after the rollout obligation period, which stipulated publicly available services within 18 months in the case of the 2.5GHz band and 36 months for the 2.3GHz band, Wimax has not proved popular. We expect all the operators to bid for 4G licenses and launch official LTE services when the spectrum becomes available. Given the regulatory clarity around spectrum for LTE, the operators may be encouraged to invest in network rollout in the 2.3GHz and 2.6GHz bands.
Under the IDA’s current plans, the 2.3GHz/2.6GHz bands are unlikely to be available for reassignment in Singapore in the next two years, as the existing spectrum rights for Wimax don’t expire until 2015. Given that all three mobile networks operators are currently operating trial LTE services, this is a long wait until full commercial launch. The IDA is likely to consider allocating spectrum in the 2.3GHz and 2.6GHz bands earlier – perhaps in 2012 – by which time the trials are expected to have demonstrated strong demand for LTE services in Singapore.
The IDA should also recognize the increasing global interest in LTE technology. According to Ovum’s latest LTE rollout tracker (‘HSPA/HSPA+/LTE rollout/plan tracker’), so far 25 operators have publicly announced plans to have a LTE network in service by the end of 2012, and we expect more commitments later this year. Given the strong trend of LTE deployment across the world, the IDA should consider reassigning the 2.3GHz and 2.6GHz bands for commercial launch of LTE as soon as possible.