Kazakhstan vs North Macedonia: World Cup 2026 Qualifier Preview
A high-pressure UEFA World Cup 2026 Qualifier Round 4 match between Kazakhstan and North Macedonia takes place on June 9, 2025, at Astana Arena in Kazakhstan. Both teams, scrappy underdogs of Group J, push each other hard with their World Cup dreams in the balance as North Macedonia tops the group and Kazakhstan hopes to edge their way past with their loud crowd advantage. With North Macedonia at 2.224, Kazakhstan at 3.87, and draw at 3.25, this tantalizes as a battle for playoff positions. There's a buzz on X, with fans cheering on the "relentless home energy" of Kazakhstan and "clutch performers" of North Macedonia. Here's your straight-down-the-line data on recent form, key team updates, and betting insights for this Group J thriller.
Claim Welcome Bonus🇰🇿 Kazakhstan: form and statistics
Having made a switch from AFC to UEFA in 2002, Kazakhstan is trying to bag its first-ever World Cup, the main aspiration that has lent spirit to their dogged performances in Group J. Sitting 3rd with 3 points (W-D-L: 1-0-2), Kazakhstan asserted themselves in June when they took Liechtenstein 2-0 for their first points off age-old opposition from UEFA.com: the first goal, a header from Abat Aimbetov; the second, a penalty converted by Bauyrzhan Islamkhan. According to Goal.com, the home record at Astana Arena remains patchy for them, as they have scored just 2 times but conceded thrice, with one of those losses being an expose of defensive vulnerability against Belgium (3-1). Season stats tell of a low-scoring attack (3 goals) and a sturdy defense (5 goals conceded, 5.2 xGA); 64.3% saves and 7 yellows characterize their physical style, averaging around 10 fouls per game. Coach Magomed Adiyev told Kazinform how "The crowd in the Astana arena is our 12th man—we will fight to the last." While Aimbetov's "clutch finishing" has been praised by X fans, injuries to key men like Bakhtiyar Zaynutdinov have sparked concern, one user posting, "No Zaynutdinov hurts, but Aimbetov can carry us." Kazakhstan's promotion to League B in the 2023 UEFA Nations League was a testimony to their increasing credentials; their physicality should disrupt the rhythm of North Macedonia. However, their aimless attack and injury concerns may force the defense to stand firm against a highly equipped Macedonian counter-attack.
Kazakhstan Lineup
Expected Lineup: Shatskiy (GK), Marochkin, Bystrov, Alip, Vorogovskiy, Beysebekov, Tagybergen, Orazov, Islamkhan, Aimbetov, Samorodov
Out: Ramazan Karimov (knee), Askhat Tagybergen (doubtful, calf), Yan Vorogovskiy (doubtful, ankle), Bakhtiyar Zaynutdinov (hamstring)
Head Coach: Magomed Adiyev
Kazakhstan Latest Games
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Curacao
Slovenia
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Turkmenistan
North Macedonia Latest Games
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Wales
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🇲🇰 North Macedonia: form and statistics
North Macedonia, which reached Euro 2020 in a shock and defeated Italy in the 2022 World Cup playoff, is sitting at the top of Group J with 4 points (1-1-1) and fighting for its first World Cup berth. A pin-drop victory against Wales thanks to a 68th-minute Eljif Elmas goal-output from the wire-turned probably their most precious win held on 6th June 2025, according to Sportskeeda; they followed that with a 1-1 draw against Belgium and a 3-0 slaughter of Liechtenstein, according to Newsweek. Solid away form (1-0-1) means they scored 3 goals and conceded 2, with season stats represented as 4 goals against, a 4.2 xG against, and a 66.7% save rate. Milevski told UEFA.com, “We’re here to make history, but Kazakhstan’s physicality is a test.” Enthusiasts hype a "game-changing spark" by Elmas. Injuries remain a source of concern, with Enis Bardhi's absence weighing heavily, as one fan noted, "No Bardhi, and we're thin at the back." Their counter-attacking set-up, spearheaded by Elmas and Bojan Miovski, produced 1.4 xG against Wales but average shot volume (10 per game) could spell trouble against Kazakhstan's aggressive defense. Sky Sports reports North Macedonia's six-win streak before the Wales draw shows their form, but injuries and a depleted squad could leave them vulnerable on the road.
North Macedonia Lineup
Expected Lineup: Dimitrievski (GK), Ristovski, Serafimov, Musliu, Alioski, Churlinov, Atanasov, Elmas, Miovski, Trajkovski, Nestorovski
Out: Enis Bardhi (ankle), Visar Musliu (doubtful, groin), Darko Velkovski (hamstring), Bojan Dimoski (out)
Head Coach: Blagoja Milevski
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Kazakhstan vs North Macedonia Head-to-Head Statistics
North Macedonia and Kazakhstan have met three times in the past, with North Macedonia leading 2-1, no draws. North Macedonia recorded another win against the Kazakhs last time they met in the UEFA Nations League 2023, with a 2-0 scoreline in Skopje, thanks to goals by Elmas and Miovski, according to UEFA.com. Kazakhstan's only triumph was back in a 2016 friendly, 1-0, but they've had their troubles in competitive fixtures, notching just eight shots to North Macedonia's 14 in their most recent encounter. The X posts are all about tension, with one user posting, "Macedonia's got Kazakhstan's number," and another replying, "Astana's crowd could change everything." On paper, North Macedonia's 58% possession and previous counter-attacking advantage should pose a psychological barrier for Kazakhstan. However, Kazakhstan's physical style and the fact they are playing at home might make for the closest contest yet.
History of Head-to-Heads
World Cup Qualification UEFA 1st Round Grp. J 2025/2026
North Macedonia
Friendlies 2021
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan vs North Macedonia Betting Tips and Odds
- Kazakhstan’s 3 goals and North Macedonia’s 4 in Group J point to under 2.5 goals.
- North Macedonia’s 2-1 H2H record, including a 2-0 win in 2023, favors them.
- Kazakhstan’s 10 fouls per game and 7 yellow cards suggest a card-heavy match.
- Three goals in two away games highlight North Macedonia’s counter-attacking prowess.
- Elmas’ goal against Wales and 1.4 xG make him a strong anytime goalscorer bet.
Kazakhstan vs North Macedonia Match Prediction
This Group J showdown is a contest of brawn and brain-aggressive home stand of Kazakhstan against almost surgical precision of counter-attacks from North Macedonia. As Yahoo Sports put it, Kazakhstan's 2-0 triumph over Liechtenstein confirmed their fighting spirit, with Aimbetov crucially opening the scoring moments before Zaynutdinov limped off with injury. Adiyev told Kazinform, “We will use our crowd to unsettle them.” Riding on the confidence of a 1-0 win against Wales, Milevski is quoted by UEFA.com as saying, “We’re ready to take another step.” The X-fans seem divided, one saying: “Kazakh physicality will rattle Macedonia;” and the other retorting with “Elmas is too clutch.” Despite this, North Macedonia's head-to-head advantage and away form are superior to Kazakhstan's home advantage. North Macedonia to win by a 1-0 scoreline. Under 2.5 goals (1.621) will be a safe bet to make as both teams are notoriously low-scoring. The main bet is North Macedonia to win (2.224), supported by both their current form and past victories. Shooting from Sportskeeda and Goal.com favors North Macedonia, while Bet365 chooses under 2.5 goals, in alignment with our argument. The main bet stands out as a value bet, putting confidence in Macedonia's tenacity.
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