Adam Walton vs Daniil Medvedev: Prediction for the Match on October 16, 2025
It is a Centre Court day to remember in Almaty as Adam Walton takes on Daniil Medvedev in the ATP 250 Almaty Open 2025 round of 16. An indoor-hard battle between a rising star from Australia and a former world No. 1, is happening, while tennis viewership in Central Asia is up by 12% (Nielsen 2025). Walton, who is 76th in the world with a 27-18 season record, wants to carry the momentum of his breakthrough Cincinnati win over Medvedev, whereas the Russian (No. 14, 26-17) is looking to continue the ATP Finals run after the Shanghai semis.
@TennisFanatic on X calls it "a revenge arc for the ages," with #MedvedevReborn trending at the same time as his coaching shakeup. Their 2025 Cincinnati meeting (Walton 6-7(0), 6-4, 6-1) is the reason for the suspense regarding the tactical battle on fast courts. Get the Almaty Open 2025 player update—understand Walton's determination and get the tennis match preview 2025!
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Adam Walton, ranked No. 76 in the world, is moving fast through the Almaty Open 2025 round of 16 with a 27-18 record and is very much on the same level as Alex de Minaur in his 2023 breakout season of the ATP tour. Walton extends his hard-court hot streak to five out of seven with just one set lost after a 7-6(4), 6-7(3), 6-2 victory against Tristan Schoolkate in the first round. Despite the loss of a tiebreak, he was able to get the upper hand.
According to Tennis Abstract, Walton's debut at the tournament in Almaty breaks open with a thumping 2.45 break points won per match, which shows that he can easily handle the fast pace of an indoor hard court by picking off his opponent's serve from the baseline. @AusTennisHub's tweet described Walton's flat groundstrokes during the 4.8-shot rallies as "unflappable Down Under fire," which means that they were very efficient and effective. Walton admitted after the match that he was playing at his best and that excited the crowd immensely.
Medvedev's occasional second-serve wobbles are fully utilized by that 65% first-serve win rate (ATP stats) of Walton, whereas his 41% return points won put the Russian in a very difficult position in terms of setting up his shots. In this fight for redemption, Medvedev's offensive game from behind the return line puts a question mark over Walton's endurance, but the Aussie can fire off 5.66 aces per match to get the upper hand indoors.
Walton's 60% upset rate as an underdog is a very good bet for the event to go to a set-split in the case of the Almaty Open 2025 and backing the underdog to win a set has been the most successful betting strategy in this tournament. The 3-1 deciding-set victories of Walton are a step toward his ambition of writing history against a giant, combining the rawness of the journey and cleverness in this fan-fueled upset saga.
🇷🇺 Danniil Medvedev: form and statistics
Daniil Medvedev, a 14th-ranked player in the world, is moving with determination in the round of 16 at the Almaty Open 2025. After parting ways with his coach, he has been on a revival spree and his 26-17 record is quite impressive. Medvedev who is the second seed in the tournament and has a first-round bye, is the one to watch if he is to carry on the momentum he had in Shanghai semi-final (beat Davidovich Fokina 6-3, 7-6(5)) where he lost two sets in the grinding match in Asia.
Medvedev's game on indoor-hard courts is one to watch as he has a positive career record of 132-64 and this year is no different with a 3-2 win-loss record and the highlight being 6.62 aces per match (Tennis Abstract). His return game, which can only be compared to that of a snake's attack, is on point as he is converting 42% of the points and thus he dismantles Walton's serve, which is something that @MedvedevFanClub on X cannot stop proclaiming: "Daniil's brain wins wars." Medvedev's post on X, "Ready to reset," which is #MedvedevReborn with 8K mentions, was nothing but a fresh beginning for him.
Almaty's controlled bounce (ATP stats) is what makes that 78% hold rate work so well and Walton's flat pace, on the other hand, is what reminds us of his loss in Cincinnati. He has a 5.2-shot rally average, which is more than what the aggressors did, and he is saving 68% of his break points to make his defense even stronger. Walton was able to utilize his power at the hip of Medvedev, but the Russian variety—drop shots, angles—drove the rhythm. If the locals were to place their bets, they would go for an ace over in the Almaty Open 2025 Medvedev performance due to his 75% net success. The Australian top-100 players only win 38% of the time against him, which makes the match more threatening to be resolved in straight sets and as a result, a history-rewriting duel between the cerebral legacy and the fearless ascendant of Walton.
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Adam Walton vs Daniil Medvedev Head-to-Head Statistics
Walton has the only one win against Medvedev in their head-to-head at the Almaty Open 2025, where he shocked in Cincinnati 2025 (6-7(0), 6-4, 6-1) in a heat that Medvedev couldn't handle. Their hard-court matches have gone in Walton's favor, with an average of 22 games and tiebreak drama. Medvedev's 70% of points won when serving wide (ATP stats) is perfect for indoor hard, but Walton's 41% of returns make the second serve vulnerable. Walton's flat shots help to neutralize Medvedev's defense, however, the Russian's 42% of break conversion is a threat in Almaty. A story of a veteran versus a riser is coming—forecasting set splits and both-to-win-a-set betting for the Walton vs. Medvedev match preview.
Adam Walton vs Daniil Medvedev Betting Tips and Odds
- Game totals: In a best-of-three, the number of games varies from 21 to 25 (their Cincinnati match was 24 according to ATP trends; Almaty 2025 is at 23.2 on average).
- Set splits: Each player wins a set (100% in H2H, Tennis Abstract; Walton's determination leads to mistakes).
- Best factor: Medvedev's Return Game: 42% of the points won is the main reason Walton's serve was broken (ATP stats), thus, Shanghai accuracy is being repeated.
- Walton's upset momentum: 60% of times when Walton is an underdog he wins back over 20.5 games (ESPN trends post-Cincinnati).
- Tactical edge: Tie-breaks likely (50% of Medvedev's 2025 indoors matches feature one, ATP stats).
Adam Walton vs Daniil Medvedev Match Prediction
Almaty’s Centre Court is alive with energy as Walton's forehand hammered through Medvedev's defensive baseline in this ATP 250 Almaty Open 2025 rematch. Medvedev hitting only 42% of returns is at odds with Walton managing to hold his serve 65% of the time, but if the Aussie keeps up the depth of the rallies, he will be able to find the gaps—just like Medvedev did when he choked in Cincinnati. After a coaching break, Medvedev is still aiming for the Finals, but Walton's flat groundstrokes take full advantage of the indoor court speed. A 7K-fan X poll (@TennisInsider) gives Medvedev a 58% win probability, but #WaltonRising is gathering the momentum of an upset story. Expect an average of 4.8 shots per rally and one tiebreak in this Almaty Open 2025 match predictions gem.
Below are my top 3 bets for this match:
Our main prediction: Medvedev win 2-0 @ 1.6 odds on 1xbet
Our betting tip for the match: Medvedev win 2-0 @ 1.60 odds on Betway
Our final betting tip for the match: Adam Walton +4.5 Handicap @ 1.99 odds on Bet365
Other predictions
