Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina: Prediction for the Match on October 10, 2025
Top seed Aryna Sabalenka and No. 8 Elena Rybakina will play against each other in the quarterfinals of the WTA Wuhan Open 2025. The outdoor hard courts at the Optics Valley International Tennis Centre will be the stage for this crucial encounter that could ultimately determine the line-up of the WTA Finals. Sabalenka is already guaranteed a spot, while Rybakina is scrambling to secure one of the last places.
Sabalenka, who has won the tournament for the last three years, has a record of 58 wins and 10 losses this season, which includes four titles and the US Open, whereas Rybakina is 48-18 and she won Strasbourg. Their rivalry, which has now reached its 13th match, has Sabalenka winning the deciders and Rybakina taking the matches that go straight from sets.
X users are full of prediction as #WuhanOpen reached the peak of its excitement—52% of the recent polls support Sabalenka. With Sabalenka making 68% of her first-serve points against Rybakina, who is an ace machine (averaging 9 per match), this WTA Wuhan 2025 prediction is instrumental in revealing the tactical side of the game which bettors can take advantage of in case the match goes to a third-set thriller.
Claim Welcome Bonus🇧🇾 Aryna Sabalenka: form and statistics
World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka is on fire as she storms into her 13th WTA 1000 quarterfinal of 2025 with a dominant 58-10 overall record (33-5 on hard courts, per WTA stats). The Belarusian has won as many as four titles this year—Brisbane, Miami, Madrid, and the US Open—while she made it to seven finals and also all four major semifinals of the year, losing in the final at Roland Garros. Her dominance on the hard court is backed by a 74% win rate lifetime, complemented by 242 aces and a tour-leading 47% break-point conversion rate.
By virtue of being a three-time consecutive champion (2018, 2019, 2024), Sabalenka boasts a perfect 18-0 record in Wuhan, which is the second-longest streak this century after Caroline Wozniacki’s 20 in New Haven. After being spared the first-round action, she defeated double faults-ridden and one break-downed Rebecca Sramkova 4-6, 6-3, 6-1 in the second round. It took her only 75 minutes to smash Liudmila Samsonova 6-3, 6-2 in the third round while she was serving eight aces, winning 89% of first-serve points, and not facing a break point.
This is the eighth consecutive overall victory of Sabalenka. Her aggressive all-court game is well-equipped with power: the forehand of her generates 28% of winners (according to Tennis Abstract), whereas she is ranked top-3 in return points gained (42%). The average length of rallies is 4.8 shots per point under her pressure, and her 88% first-serve point win rate is the main factor of her best-of-three victories.
On fast hard courts of Wuhan, her agility and mental strength, which were also the reasons for her spectacular comebacks at the US Open, are very much in line with her 2019 Wuhan title run. This is her fifth appearance in Wuhan, where she has only lost a total of 12 games in her last three wins. After the match against Samsonova, she shared with WTA Insider, “Wuhan is like home to me—I’m peaking for another deep run here.” Fans on X share the same opinion, with @TheTennisLetter tweeting, “Sabalenka’s streak is unreal—tiger mode activated!”
There is a lot of talk around Sabalenka coming from ESPN where she is portrayed as the WTA “iron woman,” and the No.1 spot being held for 52 weeks is just around the corner.
🇰🇿 Elena Rybakina: form and statistics
World number nine Elena Rybakina will be in the spotlight again as she pursues her 17th WTA 1000 quarterfinal in 2025, bearing an impressive 48-18 record overall and 30-12 on hard courts, according to WTA data. She has grabbed the title once in Strasbourg and has been able to make it to the deep rounds like the semifinals in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Montreal, as well as the fourth round of the US Open. Her lifetime hard-court win rate of 67% is a testament to her steadiness, while she is also leading the tour with 89% of first-serve points won. Rybakina, who was the eighth seed, got a bye in the first round and then defeated Jaqueline Cristian 6-4, 6-3 in the second round in a comfortable manner, striking 11 aces and saving all of her break points. In the quarterfinal, she defeated Beijing finalist Linda Noskova 6-3, 6-4, breaking the opponent's serve 3 times out of 4 while holding her own in 75% of games. This is her fifth WTA 1000 quarterfinal this year and her 48th victory overall.
Rybakina's flat and deep groundstrokes as well as her serve (on average 9 aces per match) are the main weapons with which she brings the opponent to the net, and she manages to win 82% of the points when serving the first ball on hard. Most of the time she is able to finish the point in 4 shots or less, winning 60% of these and her backhand slices keep the opponent off balance. The number of double faults has been reduced to 3.1 per match following her injury comeback, making her a versatile threat which has evolved her from the 2022 Wimbledon champion. Rybakina is making her debut in Wuhan which is a good fit as she wants to look for the same deep run like the final she made at Beijing in 2023. After Noskova match, she said in an interview with WTA TV, "From the first ball I was focused, now it's all about building up momentum for Riyadh." Fans on @UniversTennis termed it a "classique" and praised her for the "ball-striking brilliance."
Media like Tennis.com also notice her fitness comeback and there have been no retirements up to 2025. To win the match, Rybakina's serve could be the weapon to Sabalenka's aggressive returns as it was in her 6-1, 6-4 Cincinnati upset. Her 75% success rate at the net is further improvement in her game, however, Sabalenka's rally extension (5.2 shots average) will be the factor that gradually tires her. On hard, Rybakina has the upper hand in their meetings with 5-4, but her 40% third-set win rate against top players is still behind Sabalenka's who can be trusted to get the job done 70% of the time.
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Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Head-to-Head Statistics
Since 2019, Sabalenka has a 7-5 record over Rybakina in their 12 meetings, and in fact, all of her 7 wins were in three sets where the deciders were of epic nature (according to WTA stats). On outdoor hard courts, the head-to-head stands at 4-4, but Rybakina has the edge in the most recent form with five of the last eight wins including a 6-1, 6-4 Cincinnati quarterfinal in August 2025. Their 2019 Wuhan quarterfinal went Sabalenka’s way 6-4, 4-6, 6-3, averaging 3.2 sets across clashes. The average duration of the matches is 2.1 hours, and 55% of them have been tiebreaks due to the elite level of serving—Sabalenka’s defense is great in breakers (65% win rate). Hard courts are more suitable for Sabalenka's game with the use of variety, however, Rybakina's wins in straight sets (four out of five) suggest that she might be able to cause a surprise. Reacting to Cincinnati: "Rybakina's serve is a weapon - can she do it again?" Another close fight awaits on the way to the WTA Wuhan 2025 semifinal.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Betting Tips and Odds
- Over 20.5 Total Games Eight of their 12 meetings went over 20.5 games, with the average being 22.4, which was mainly due to unbreakable serves as both players hold 85% of their service games on hard (WTA data). They were also safe for extended rallies in Wuhan’s conditions.
- Both Players to Win a Set This happened in 75% of the matches with neither of the players dominating in straight sets; as a result, Sabalenka’s three-set wins and Rybakina’s upsets lead to splits (according to head-to-head trends).
- Match to Go Three Set: Half of the 12 matches (50%) went to the third set, which is the case for four of the last six as well—Sabalenka’s 70% third-set win rate is met by Rybakina’s pressure holds, thus, it can be considered a dependable pattern for quarterfinals level of intensity.
- Tie-Break Played: It was the case in 55% of the matches as both players rank top-5 in service games held (88% combined); the fast hard in Wuhan is the reason for this, with tie-break being part of the match in 60% of Sabalenka’s wins in Wuhan.
- Sabalenka Over 6.5 Aces She is doing an average of 8 aces per match in Wuhan (18 in total throughout the three wins), and one of the reasons for that is, as she converts 68% of her first serves, her power goes perfectly against Rybakina’s return (42% points won).
- Rybakina Under 3.5 Double Faults: Her double faults are down to 3.1 per match in 2025 from improved consistency. Also, her 52% second-serve points won made by the server keeps the scoreline close in the decisive moments and thus it is a good under in these circumstances and when the player is in good shape.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Match Prediction
On Wuhan’s blazing-fast hard courts, Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina are powering through a WTA 1000 quarterfinal in what could be their 2019 Wuhan epic sequel. Sabalenka’s undefeated run (18-0) turns the Optics Valley Centre into her arena where her forehand fire (28% winners) confronts Rybakina’s serving weaponry (9 aces average). Rybakina’s performance in Cincinnati was a perfect shot to Sabalenka’s second serve (55% win rate), but the Belarusian’s rally stamina (55% over 5+ shots) and 80% decider dominance should be the factors deciding the match in her favor.
Several X polls have the fans opting for Sabalenka 52-48, with @SK__Tennis tweeting "a serve-off for the ages.” So, take your aces, breaks, and a decider to be the highlights of the match—Sabalenka moving on 6-4, 4-6, 7-5, thereby prolonging her Wuhan narrative while Rybakina continues to fight for Finals dreams.
Below are my top 3 bets for this match:
Our main prediction: Sabalenka to Win @ 1.683 odds on 1xbet
Our betting tip for the match: Sabalenka to Win @ 1.66 odds on Betway
Our final betting tip for the match: Sabalenka to Win @ 1.68 odds on Bet365
Other predictions
