First round, Australian Open 2025: Kasidit Samrej, a barely-known young talent from Thailand lying way out of the top 400 in the world ranking, set up against Daniil Medvedev of Russia, an experienced Grand Slam finalist and former World No. 1. This really is David taking on Goliath, with Samrej looking for the performance of a lifetime against one of the most consistent players in the modern game. Is this when the underdog shocks the tennis world, or will Medvedev make his presence felt and stroll into the next round?
Claim Welcome BonusKasidit Samrej
Kasidit Samrej reaches his first main draw at the Australian Open as the world No. 414. So far, the 22-year-old has made no ripple in the ATP Tour at a career win/loss of just 3/7 and zero titles. But entering a Grand Slam event can always be his opportunity to show the world what he is capable of:.
Samrej, meanwhile, is in terrible form coming into this match. He has lost three on the trot entering this match, including a straight sets loss to Clement Tabur in the Nonthaburi Challenger. He was in and out throughout that match, committing 5 double faults and serving in at only 57% of his first serves in. More concerningly, he failed to save any of the break points against him. For Samrej to stand any chance, he will have to improve his serve accuracy and reduce unforced errors drastically against Medvedev.
Daniil Medvedev
Meanwhile, Daniil Medvedev-World No. 5 and three-time Australian Open finalist-is as formidable a force. Known for his way of playing tennis, one of the best return games in the world, and his steely mental toughness, Medvedev has come to be counted among the most consistent players in this sport. The Russian comes in as one of the favorites coming into this event with 20 career titles and an astonishing 379/157 win/loss record.
What's more, the record of Medvedev in Melbourne Park is great. He reached consecutive finals in 2021 and 2022, besides the one in 2024 when he lost to Jannik Sinner in an exciting five-set match. Medvedev's stats on all surfaces bring into view his dominance: a 61% first-serve accuracy, 75% first-serve points won, and an excellent 43% break-point conversion rate underpin how well he controls matches. Against Samrej, Medvedev is expected to dictate play from the baseline, capitalize on his opponent’s weaknesses, and ensure a swift passage to the second round.
Expert Betting Tips
This is a total mismatch on paper as Medvedev looks way ahead of his opponent in almost every department of the game. The consistent serve, superlative return game, and tactical acumen make Medvedev an overwhelming favorite going into this one. Samrej, for his part, has to be fearless and serve really well to have even the remotest chances of competing here.
The Russian is known for his ability to neutralize aggressive opponents, and that spells trouble for Samrej, who has struggled for consistency and lacks the power to hit through Medvedev's defense. Barring the fifth seed being uncharacteristically off, this should be a straight-forward win.
Under 27 total games: This may be a pretty short match given that Medvedev will most likely dominate early and break Samrej's serve often. Fewer than 27 games is a good bet. (1xbet: 1.6 Odds)
Daniil Medvedev to win in straight sets: Given the experience of Medvedev and the lack of big-stage exposure for Samrej, a straight-sets win for the Russian is highly likely. Good value in this bet. (Betway: 1.25 Odds)
Medvedev to win the first set 6-2: Being known for making strong starts, Medvedev might easily take the first set with a big margin against an opponent like Samrej. (Bet365: 3.20 Odds)
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