Carlos Alcaraz vs Arthur Rinderknech: Prediction for the Match on June 20, 2025

Alcaraz vs. Rinderknech ATP 500 London 2025: Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips

The grass courts of Queen's are heating up as the quarterfinal match at the cinch Championships on June 20th at 16:40 in Andy Murray Arena brings a blockbuster showdown between Carlos Alcaraz and world No. 68 Frenchman Arthur Rinderknech. The now-French Open winner and two-time Wimbledon champion is an absolute force on grass, but Rinderknech's thunderous serve and recent upset of Reilly Opelka puts the pop in underdog. With Wimbledon right around the corner, this match becomes a big-gun test for both players. Will Alcaraz's all-court brilliance snuff out Rinderknech's hopes, or can the Frenchman muster the spirit of a giant killer? Here are the stats, form, head-to-heads, and betting tweaks to give you a leg up.

🇪🇸 Carlos Alcaraz

Carlos Alcaraz (Spain, No. 2 in the world), 22, is an aggressive all-court player with great movement, heavy topspin, and killer drop shots. With 21 career titles (5 hard, 11 clay, 3 grass, 2 indoor), he is undefeated in 2025 with a 39-5 record with 4 titles (Rotterdam, Monte-Carlo, Rome, French Open). Alcaraz' streak stands at 15 consecutive wins, with a win against Jannik Sinner at the French Open. At Queen's, he has battled through some severe tests with a win against Adam Walton (6-4, 7-6(4)) and Jaume Munar in a three-hour epic (6-4, 6-7(7), 7-5), the longest match there in 34 years. Since 2023, his grass record is a staggering 22-1, having won back-to-back Wimbledon and Queen's in 2023. Nevertheless, his serving became quite questionable with eight double faults against Munar, which may well be his Achilles heel against Rinderknech's thunderous serve. Alcaraz won 134 points in the last encounter against Munar (June 19, 2025), converted 4/13 breakpoints (32%), and won 79% first-serve points. His grass record for 2025 is 2-0, with a career-high win percentage of 89% on this surface (25-3). "I still don't know how I'm standing here right now," Alcaraz said after Munar. That's a testament to resilience.

🇫🇷 Arthur Rinderknech

Arthur Rinderknech (France, World No. 80), aged 29, relies on a big serve and power-based game, favoring fast surfaces but lacking versatility. With no ATP titles, his best result in 2025 has been reaching the quarterfinals at Queen's. His season record stands at 11-20, while grass-court record is a promising 4-2. He qualified, stunning World No. 10 Ben Shelton and then put away Reilly Opelka 6-4, 6-4 after not facing a single break point in either match. His serving spells untouchable, hitting 63% first serves against Opelka, but somehow inconsistency has been the hallmark of a player with grass win/loss record standing at 50% (17-17) and having gone 3-2 in his last five matches. His last match, on June 19, 2025, saw him winning 32% of return points and not facing a break point. His grass record is 4-2 in 2025 but he's never won three grass matches in a row, a difficulty that faces him against Alcaraz. French journalist @BenoitMaylin complimented the win over Opelka as "very solid," mentioning how the 2023 Queen's match against Alcaraz saw a tight 7-6(3) third set. Sportskeeda noted that Rinderknech has a movement advantage over Opelka, which will put Alcaraz's returns to the test. X praises his serve but questions his consistency against Alcaraz's baseline game.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Arthur Rinderknech Head-to-Head Statistics

Alcaraz leads the head-to-head by 2-0. The last meeting came in Queen's 2023 Round 1, where the Spaniard came up trumps, 4-6, 7-5, 7-6(3). Rinderknech won the first set, exploiting Alcaraz's rustiness in his third-ever grass match, but Alcaraz's adjustment saw him complete the comeback. The 2023 match went to two points from defeat for Alcaraz and spoke a lot about how Rinderknech can trouble him.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Arthur Rinderknech Betting Tips and Odds

• Alcaraz has a 22-1 grass record since 2023, with his only loss to Andy Murray, making him a near-lock against lower-ranked players (89% win rate).
• Rinderknech has faced zero break points in his two Queen’s matches, with a 63% first-serve success rate, suggesting tight sets.
• Alcaraz converts 32% of breakpoints in 2025 but struggled (4/13) against Munar, a concern against big servers.
• Rinderknech’s grass matches often hit tiebreaks, with 2 of his 4 2025 grass wins featuring at least one.
• Alcaraz’s 15-match win streak and three-set win over Munar highlight his stamina edge in long matches.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Arthur Rinderknech Match Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz is the big favorite, holding an 82% chance of winning the match, but Rinderknech has a big serve and the potential to create some grass-court upsets, which would render this much closer than the odds suggest. Alcaraz's movement, return game, and grass-court ability should prevail, but Rinderknech's serve could earn one set tiebreak. Alcaraz should be dominant in two tight sets, relying on his experience in high-pressure situations.

Alcaraz to Win & Over 19.5 Games (1.66 at 1xbet): Alcaraz looks the winner according to the 2-0 head-to-head and 22-1 grass records, but the Rinderknech serve, which has yet to be broken, may make for many games. Their 2023 Queen's meeting saw 37 games total, and the fact that Alcaraz has recently featured in a three-setter only attests to a long match unfolding.

First Set Total Games Over 9.5 (1.72 at Betway): Rinderknech's serve is probably his biggest weapon, serving well enough to not concede a single break point at Queen's. While on the other hand, Alcaraz's return game is just amazing but somehow faced eight double faults against Munar. Things could go all the way to a tiebreak or maybe 7-5, thus pushing the games over 9.5.

Alcaraz -4.5 Game Handicap (1.78 at Bet365): Alcaraz prepared for this with some grass chain of events and sitting on 32% conversion at breakpoints, indicating he will hold comfortably. Holding serve was all that helped Rinderknech's upset of Opelka. However, with returns of that quality, a 6-3, 6-4 win will do with much cover for handicap.