Carlos Alcaraz vs Felix Auger-Aliassime: Prediction for the Match on November 15, 2025
The Inalpi Arena is charged with anticipation as Carlos Alcaraz, the year-end No. 1 for 2025, enters after a flawless 3-0 record in the group stage. At just 22 years old, Alcaraz has achieved remarkable success, including two Grand Slam titles, three Masters 1000 victories, eight overall titles, and an impressive 70-8 win-loss record. This semifinal match against Felix Auger-Aliassime represents a pivotal moment—a chance for Alcaraz to secure his first Finals title after defeating Jannik Sinner four times this season. The statistics favor Alcaraz, with an 80% win probability reflected in 1xbet's moneyline of 1.24, supported by his dominance in the Top 10 with a 16-3 record. His explosive forehand and tactical acumen are key to capitalizing on opponents' weaknesses. A victory in Turin would not only solidify his position in the Top 10 for 2026 but also enhance his growing legacy. In indoor hard court matches this year, Alcaraz stands at 9-2, while Auger-Aliassime boasts an impressive 19-5 record. Nevertheless, Felix, having improved from No. 29 to No. 5 with 50 wins and three indoor titles, poses a significant threat, turning the court into an arena of fierce competition. For Alcaraz, this match is about establishing a lasting legacy; for FAA, it represents a chance for redemption.
Claim Welcome Bonus🇪🇸 Carlos Alcaraz: Form and Statistics
Carlos Alcaraz approaches the Piedmont stage with an undeniable intensity and determination. With a year-to-date record of 70 wins and 8 losses, translating to an impressive 89.7% win rate on the ATP circuit, he embodies the characteristics of a rising star. Alcaraz has secured eight titles, including consecutive Grand Slam victories and a breakthrough win at the Rotterdam indoor event. In matches against Top-10 opponents, he boasts a strong 16-3 record.
Reflecting on his performance at the Paris Masters on October 28, Alcaraz faced a setback against Cameron Norrie, losing in the second round with a score of 4-6, 6-3, 6-4. He saved only 4 of 9 break points and committed 54 unforced errors during the match. “I had all the ideas clear... but today, even in the first set I won, I just felt like I could do much more,” he remarked (ATP, October 28). This moment of self-reflection fueled his subsequent performances in Turin, where he delivered strong showings in the round-robin stage, defeating Alex de Minaur 7-6(5), 6-2 and overcoming Taylor Fritz in a tight match that ended 6-7(2), 7-5, 6-3. He also showcased his skill against Lorenzo Musetti, converting 3 of 5 break points without losing a set.
In his last five indoor matches, Alcaraz has recorded a solid sequence of wins and losses: W-W-L-W-W. Notably, in the match against Fritz on November 12, he won 85% of his first serve points. After the match, he stated, "These battles test your soul—mine's unbreakable now." Alcaraz's ability to return serve has been evident, effectively winning 44% of Felix Auger-Aliassime's second serves in their last three encounters. His tactical gameplay, particularly with his inside-out forehand, puts his opponents on the back foot.
As he moves forward in the tournament, Alcaraz is poised for continued success, with a chance to achieve significant milestones that could pave the way for his legacy in the sport.
🇨🇦 Felix Auger-Aliassime: Form and Statistics
Felix Auger-Aliassime emerges as a formidable contender in 2025, showcasing a remarkable transformation in his performance. With an impressive record of 50 wins and 23 losses this year, translating to a 68.5% win rate on the ATP Tour, he has established himself through significant accomplishments: three titles at Adelaide, Montpellier, and Brussels, a semifinal appearance at the US Open, and a balanced 5-5 record against Top-10 players.
Reflecting on his recent success, Auger-Aliassime's quarterfinal victory over Valentin Vacherot at the Paris tournament on October 31 was particularly noteworthy, as he won decisively with a score of 6-2, 6-2. He executed four out of five break opportunities while hitting 22 winners and committing no errors in the second set. Earlier in the tournament, he rallied from a set down to defeat Daniel Altmaier, demonstrating resilience by saving seven of eight break points and winning 62% of his net points.
Commenting on his approach, Auger-Aliassime remarked on October 31, "He is so confident... but I had to be so focused from the start." His indoor performance speaks volumes: in his last five matches, he has recorded four wins and a single loss against high-caliber opponents. His indoor hard-court record stands at 19-5, with an impressive 88% hold rate in Paris.
Following his victory over Alexander Zverev on November 14, he expressed confidence: “This is the habit now—winning the close ones feels right.” Auger-Aliassime leads the Tour with 20 triumphs in deciding sets. As he prepares for upcoming matches, he remains a strategic bet, with positive indications for continued success.
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Carlos Alcaraz vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Head-to-Head Statistics
H2H: Carlos Alcaraz 4–3 overall (ATP).
Felix Auger-Aliassime (FAA) dominated his matches with three consecutive victories since 2021, but Carlos Alcaraz reversed this trend, winning four straight matches since 2023. Notably, he achieved a commanding 6-1, 6-1 victory in the Olympic semifinals in 2024, showcasing his prowess with 22 winners and five breaks of serve. In the most recent encounter at the 2024 Paris Olympics, Alcaraz again prevailed 6-1, 6-1 in a swift 78-minute match, breaking serve five times without offering any chances to his opponent. In their indoor meetings, FAA holds a 2-0 record, including a quarterfinal win in Basel (2022) and a Round of 64 victory in Paris (2023). His impressive 78% first-serve percentage in these matches underscores his dominance. A prop bet of over 3.5 breaks at 1.77 on 1xbet looks enticing, given Alcaraz's 41% break rate on second serves this year.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Betting Tips and Odds
- Alcaraz ML @ 1.24 (1xbet) — 80% edge and 4-1 recent H2H lock his Finals push.
- Under 22.5 games @ 1.77 — Straight-sets mastery in 7 of last 10 indoors (ATP) stifles fightback.
- Alcaraz -3.5 games @ 1.68 — Covers in 6 of 7 fall Top-10s, preying on backhand frailties (ATP).
Carlos Alcaraz vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Match Prediction
Carlos Alcaraz will showcase his dominance with an impressive 80% serve efficiency. Channeling the intensity reminiscent of the Olympics, he will deliver powerful returns throughout the match.
In the first set, he might achieve an 85% first-serve hold, a statistic consistent with the ATP averages in the Turin Round Robin, allowing him to capitalize on two breaks from Felix Auger-Aliassime and secure the set 6-4.
During the second set, Auger-Aliassime might attempt a comeback with 10 aces but ultimately fell short as Alcaraz executed a decisive cross-court attack, claiming the set 7-5.
Auger-Aliassime has a 20% chance of upsetting Alcaraz, dependent on the latter's serve dipping below 65%, which had occurred in two of their three previous encounters.
The final score: 6-4, 7-5, with Alcaraz’s performance echoing promises of future successes.
Top 3 Recommended Bets:
Under 23 games @ 1.61 odds on 1xbet
Under 22.5 games @ 1.77 odds on Betway
Alcaraz -3.5 games @ 1.68 odds on Bet365
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