Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti: Prediction and odds on the Match on 16 May 2025
Get ready for the thrilling ATP Rome 2025 semifinal between Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti. Discover expert predictions, betting odds, player stats, and weather conditions. Don't miss out—click the welcome bonus link on this page for exclusive offers!
Claim Welcome Bonus🇪🇸 Carlos Alcaraz - ATP Rank 3
Alcaraz will enter the Rome semifinal having won four consecutive matches and showing fiery top-level tennis and resilience. His last win came against British No. 1 Jack Draper in the quarterfinals, in straight sets, 6-4, 6-4, despite having lost his lead at 4-2 in the first set. Alcaraz reacted immediately with a break to win the first set. Then in the second till the end of the match, he remained calm, saving six of eight break points, while seizing good opportunities to wrap up the match in a little over one hour and 37 minutes (source:www.espn.com).
This incredibly impressive win also makes it a strong return from a right-side adductor sprain that Alcaraz incurred in the final of the Barcelona Open, leading to his withdrawal from Madrid. Now, he said that he feels "100% ready" and keen to contest at his best again (source:www.apnews.com).
At the ATP Rome tournament in 2025, Alcaraz has been averaging 1.5 aces per match and has been working with a 65.9% first serve rate. Alcaraz has saved 61% of break points coming his way while converting 52% of his opportunities to break (source:www.sofascore.com). Against Draper, Alcaraz produced 1 ace, 3 double faults, 63% first serves, saved 75% of break points, returned 43% of Draper's first serves, and converted 4 breakpoints (source:www.sofascore.com
🇮🇹 Lorenzo Musetti – ATP Rank 9
Lorenzo Musetti has entered the semifinals of the 2025 Italian Open with extraordinary spots and grit. The quarterfinal was based on Musetti's defeat of the defending champion Alexander Zverev in straight sets (7-6, 6-4), placing him inside the top 8 of the ATP rankings at least, from where he could elevate further depending on his upcoming matches (www.atptour.com).
Consistency is something that Musetti has maintained throughout this season, with a Grand Slam deep run at the Monte-Carlo Masters 2025 under his belt after beating the likes of Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alex de Minaur, with Carlos Alcaraz eventually getting the better of him (www.wikipedia.com).
He has averaged 2.8 aces per match so far at the Rome tournament, with a 62.8% first-serve percentage, 70% of break points saved, and 57% of break points converted (source: www.sofascore.com). Against Zverev, Musetti had 2 aces and no double faults, with 53% first serves in; he saved 66% of break points, returned 41% of the first serves of Zverev, and converted 3 breakpoints (www.sofascore.com).
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👥 Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti Head-to-Head Statistics
Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti have met six times, with Carlos Alcaraz leading 5-1. The most recent meet was the 2025 Monte-Carlo Masters final, won by Alcaraz 3-6, 6-1, 6-0. Alcaraz has taken the last four encounters, asserting their dominance in the recent matchups. That single win for Musetti was in the Hamburg European Open final 2022, his scoreline reading 6-4, 6-7(6), 6-4 against Alcaraz (www.sofascore.com). The matches have generally been close and competitive games, indicating the quality the two players are known for when they step onto the court.
📉 Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti Betting Tips and Odds
- Alcaraz leads the head-to-head 5-1 against Musetti, including a comeback win in their latest meeting at the Monte-Carlo 2025 final (Alcaraz to Win ~ 1.40 odds)
- Despite the one-sided H2H, four of their past six matches have featured sets extending beyond 10 games. Both players are on winning streaks and have shown resilience throughout the tournament (Total over 20.5 games ~ 1.68 odds).
- Musetti’s form has peaked, winning 8 straight sets and beating Zverev in style. He took a set off Alcaraz recently in Monte-Carlo, showing he can compete (Musetti to win a set ~ 1.78 odds).
- Their last meeting went to three sets. Given both players’ current form, a full-length contest is likely (Over 2.5 sets ~ 2.25 odds).
- Alcaraz started strong all tournament and broke Draper’s momentum early in the quarterfinal (Alcaraz win first set ~ 1.39 odds).
🏆 Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti Match Prediction
The upcoming ATP Rome semifinal between Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti should be a magnificent spectacle to watch. Alcaraz has shown durability and form since returning from injury, and in his last match against Jack Draper, he showed all of that. He excels dangerously on clay, with an excellent head-to-head record against Musetti-the one area where the spotlight shines on him.
Musetti, on the other hand, is brimming with confidence at the moment, having won his last four matches in straight sets against the best players, including Alexander Zverev. A strong server with excellent break point conversion, he will be a tough opponent.
Below are my betting tips for the match:-
🏅 My prediction:- Over 2.5 sets with a coefficient of 2.40 odds on Bet365
🏅 My betting tip:- Lorenzo Musetti wins first set with a coefficient of 2.65 odds on Betway
🏅 My main betting tip:- Carlos Alcarz wins (-3) with a coefficient of 1.60 odds
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