Carlos Alcaraz vs Roberto Bautista Agut: Prediction for the Match on June 21, 2025
The Andy Murray Arena at Queen’s Club will witness a blockbuster semifinal on June 21, 2025, as world No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz takes on fellow countryman and veteran Roberto Bautista Agut in the ATP 500 Cinch Championships. Alcaraz, the two-time reigning Wimbledon champion, is scheduled to vie for his second Queen’s title and a 16th straight victory, while Bautista Agut is busy proving that age is just a number with a gritty run to the semifinals at 37. This all-Spanish encounter is much more than a fight for a final berth-it is a challenge for youth versus experience, flair versus consistency, and raw power versus tactical intelligence. Bautista Agut will have to go for the improbably big upset at grass if Alcaraz is made to be the heavy favorite by the betting odds. We shall go about breaking down the contest, assessing player forms, and bringing you the cutting-edge rendition of odds to bestow your advantage.
Claim Welcome Bonus🇪🇸 Carlos Alcaraz
Carlos Alcaraz, a 22-year-old Spanish prodigy, possesses the capability of being a five-time Grand Slam champion; he is also the top-seeded player at Queen's. His baseline game-as fast as lightning-his dazzling movement, and his tense clutch mentality turn him into an absolute juggernaut on grass courts: Alcaraz has a record of 23 wins and just one loss on the surface since 2023. On a roll, Alcaraz has just defended his French Open title against Jannik Sinner and boasts a 15-match win streak that includes titles in Rome and Paris. On June 19, 2025, at Queen's, he struggled for three hours and 26 minutes with Jaume Munar (6-4, 6-7(7), 7-5) before crushing Arthur Rinderknech 7-5, 6-4 in the quarterfinals on June 20, 2025. He served 6 aces against Rinderknech, had 15 unforced errors, saved 2 of 5 break points, and averaged a 68% first serve. His 2025 clay session was nothing short of spectacular; 16-2 was his record, and his break point conversion rate stood at 32%. According to BBC Sport, the French Open title was "epic," while Alcaraz told Tennis Majors that he is feeling "much better" on grass this season as compared to in 2023. On X, @ml_previews called him "the dynamic prodigy" and mentioned his win probability of 82% against Rinderknech.
🇪🇸 Roberto Bautista Agut
The 37-year-old Spanish veteran ranked No. 51 brings experience and relentless consistency to the court. With his flat groundstrokes and tactical intelligence, he might be said to present tough opposition for anyone when his backhand is working fine. Among other titles, Bautista Agut has won an Antwerp title last October, showing flashes of brilliance 12 times. He has been inconsistent in 2025, going 9-12; however, at Queen's, he took his form to new heights by saving a match point against Nuno Borges (6-7(6), 7-5, 6-4), then squeezing past Jakub Mensik (3-6, 6-3, 7-5), with a huge upset win over World No. 9 Holger Rune (7-6(5), 6-7(4), 6-2) in the quarterfinals on June 20, 2025. While playing against Rune, Bautista threw in 4 aces, made 20 unforced errors, broke 3 of 7 break chances, and landed 65% of his first serves. His 2025 clay season was moderate (4-6, 33.3% break point conversion), with the quarterfinal at Hamburg Open as his highest achievement so far. According to Telecomasia.net, he had a minor knee problem but great movement on grass courts, and @josemorgado on X declared the win over Rune as his "best of the year." Bautista Agut told the media he felt "dangerous" on grass, using his experience to batter out long rallies.
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Carlos Alcaraz vs Roberto Bautista Agut Head-to-Head Statistics
Alcaraz leads Bautista Agut 2-0, with wins at Indian Wells in 2022 (6-2, 6-0) and Barcelona in 2023 (6-3, 7-5). Their last meeting in Barcelona was a dominant performance by Alcaraz, where he converted 3/5 break points in overpowering Bautista Agut's defense with precise baseline play. Alcaraz has never lost a set to Bautista Agut, although the encounters have only been on hard and clay courts. The grass clash marks the first time they meet on this surface, and while Bautista Agut's flattened shots suit the surface, Alcaraz's movement and power have been too good to handle in the past.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Roberto Bautista Agut Betting Tips and Odds
- Alcaraz’s 23-1 grass record since 2023 (96% win rate) and 54% breakpoint save rate make him a lock for the moneyline at 1.104
- Bautista Agut’s 81.3% service game win rate on grass and first-set wins in 3/10 recent matches support betting first-set total games over 9.5 at 1.72
- Only one of Alcaraz’s last 10 grass matches went to a tie-break, and Bautista Agut’s defensive style often leads to breaks, making no tie-break at 1.65 a smart pick.
- Alcaraz covered the -4.5 game handicap in both H2H wins, and his 32% break point conversion on grass backs this at 1.89
- Alcaraz’s 78% straight-set win rate on grass in 2025 and Bautista Agut’s fatigue from three-setters point to under 20.5 games at 1.94
Carlos Alcaraz vs Roberto Bautista Agut Match Prediction
Entering as the biggest favorite with a win probability of 71 percent (according to Stats Insider), the youngest trendsetter carries a 2-0 H2H record along with an impressive grass performance of 23 wins and just a single defeat since 2023. His explosive movement and 28 winners per match should overwhelm Bautista Agut’s defensive style, especially after the exhausting best-of-three-setters that the veteran played this week. The knee issue to Bautista Agut and in 2025, a mere 40 percent clay win rate will surely sit against a top form of this Alcaraz. Expect straight-set wins for Alcaraz, something like 6-3, 6-4, with the total games staying below 20.5.
Alcaraz -4.5 Game Handicap ~ 1.89 odds (Betway)
First Set Total Games Over 9.5 ~ 1.66 odds (Bet365)
Alcaraz to Win & Under 22.5 Games ~ 1.61 odds (1xbet)
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