Hubert Hurkacz vs Tommy Paul Prediction: Can Hurkacz’s Serve Silence Paul’s Roman Revenge?

Hubert Hurkacz vs Tommy Paul: Prediction and odds on the Match on 15 May 2025

Prediction for the Tennis match which will take place on May 15. Who will turn out to be stronger? Check the players conditions! Several betting options are available.

🇵🇱 Hubert Hurkacz – ATP Rank 31

Hubert Hurkacz, Poland’s clay-court crusader, enters the quarterfinal in Rome with a renewed edge. After a shaky start to the clay season (form: LLWWW), he managed to string three tough-fought victories, including a dramatic 2-1 victory against Jakub Mensik in the previous round, showcasing his resilience and big-match nerve (source: www.sofascore.com). 

His 2025 clay court season has seen him going in mixed efficiency. While his serve remains a bigger weapon, serving an average of 4 aces per match and winning 73% of service games, the return statistics are abysmal at just 9%, while first serve accuracy sits just at 50% (source: www.atptour.com). Against Mensik, Hurkacz had 19 aces, 3 double faults, 65% of first serves in, saved 87% of break points and won 0% of his own (source: www.sofascore.com).

Having won three matches on the trot, Hurkacz must enter this clash full of confidence. However, his weakness remains on return; poor break-point conversion (0% in last match) exposes even more vulnerability. Still, if his serving and nerves in tiebreaks remain steady, the Pole could become a nightmare to get past, especially if the tussle turns out to be full-on serve-and-grind. 

Will he repeat the magic shown earlier this tournament or will a sharp baseliner stop him? Rome will tell.

🇺🇸 Tommy Paul – ATP Rank 12

Tommy Paul is an up-and-coming American star working his way up the clay courts with a recent form of WLWWW. Known for his athleticism and baseline angst-laden play, Paul has entered the quarterfinals after yet another steady display of soil craft, polished off by a 7-5, 6-3 victory over Alex de Minaur, eliminating one of the tour's most consistent defensive players without going to a third set (source: www.sofascore.com).

Clay really seems to bring out the best in him. In 2025, Paul has been striking 31 aces so far as he enjoys an 81% level of win on service games, a fine 22% of wins in return games, and a 60% worth of first serve (source: www.atptour.com). His last match saw him fired at 0 aces against 1 double fault, hitting 59% first serves. He made some noise as well, having converted 4 out of 8 break points and won 42% of first serve returns (source: www.sofascore.com). 

With three straight match wins and six sets in a row, Paul is definitely finding his groove. His speed, anticipation, and counter-punching ability give him the edge against bigger servers like Hurkacz in the matchup. If he can keep on returning well and get fewer unforced errors, he could tilt things in his favor. 

Is Paul's firepower in return going to outgun Hurkacz's barrage on service? The Foro Italico is ready.

🤝 Hubert Hurkacz vs Tommy Paul Head-to-Head Statistics

Over the ATP Tour, Hurkacz and Paul have battled five times, with Hurkacz having the slight advantage at 3-2 (source: www.sofascore.com). But momentum could swing to Paul, who got the last win, a gritty 2-1 victory in the quarterfinals of the 2024 Rome Masters. The clash proved that Paul had the tactical advantage on clay, as he kept Hurkacz out of his rhythm with sharp returns and long rallies. The big serve of Hurkacz has historically failed to allow him to take charge against Paul on a slow surface. With their last two meetings going the full distance, this promises to be a difficult one for fans to watch.

📉 Hubert Hurkacz vs Tommy Paul Betting Tips and Odds

• Both players have shown resilience, often pushing matches to the limit. Their last encounter in Rome went to three sets, indicating a potential for a high total games count.
• Given their strong serving abilities, especially Hurkacz's, the first set is likely to be closely contested, possibly leading to a tiebreak.
• Considering their form and past matches, it's plausible that both players will secure at least one set.
• Their previous Rome clash extended to three sets, and with their current form, a similar outcome is anticipated.
• Hurkacz averages 10.8 aces per match, while Paul averages 8. Their combined serving prowess suggests a high ace count .

🏆 Hubert Hurkacz vs Tommy Paul Match Prediction

This quarterfinal promises to be a classic clash of styles—with Hurkacz's thunderous first serve against Paul's ever-consistent return game. Both players carry three-match winning streaks, but Paul's return stats for clay in 2025 (22% return games won against Hurkacz's 9%) point slightly in favor of Paul, should rallies ensue (www.atptour.com). Hurkacz is an engine in the big moments, having won two consecutive tiebreaks. Having so many previous matches going the distance, the fans should brace for the roller coaster ride. It will not be a mere walk in Foro Italico, whichever style is able to carry the day: finesse or firepower.

Below are my betting tips for the match:- 

🏅 My prediction:- Total Games Over 22.5 with a coefficient of 1.74 odds on Betway 

🏅 My betting tip:- Both Players to Win a Set with a coefficient of 2.29 odds on 1xbet 

🏅 My main betting tip:- Over 2.5 Sets in the Match with a coefficient of 2.20 odds on Bet365