Zizou Bergs vs Novak Djokovic: Prediction for the Match on October 09, 2025
The ATP Shanghai Masters 2025 quarterfinals turn up the heat on Stadium Court with a big bang: World No. 5 Novak Djokovic taking on No. 44 Zizou Bergs in a pivotal outdoor hard-court battle.”
Djokovic, the four-time champion and the oldest Masters 1000 quarterfinalist at 38 years and four months, is after his 41st ATP 1000 title and a place in the semifinals against Holger Rune or Valentin Vacherot. Bergs, the Belgian breakout star, is on a wild run to the Shenzhen Open last eight after wins over Sebastian Korda, Casper Ruud (ret.), Francesco Cerundolo, and a tough battle against Gabriel Diallo.
Shanghai's scorching heat—more than 30°C with 80% humidity—has put players' stamina to the test, resulting in the likes of Jannik Sinner's retirement and Djokovic throwing up during his match against Yannick Hanfmann. X is on fire with #DjokovicVsBergs being trending. Fans applaud Bergs' "Zidane-inspired grit" (named after the soccer legend) and Djokovic's "immortal fight.”
While Djokovic boasts a 33-10 record on hard courts this year, Bergs is not afraid of the surface as he has an 18-12 record. However, this will be Djokovic's 97th Masters QF that is testament to his overwhelming power. According to ATP stats, Djokovic has a 40-6 record in Shanghai, and Bergs has never beaten a top-5 player before.
The clash is a mixture of past and future: Djokovic's tactical genius against Bergs' blasting forehand in point lengths averaging 5.5 shots. Bettors, make use of these signals—Shanghai quarterfinals average 22.3 games—with close matches providing the opportunity to place safe overs and props for value.
🇧🇪 Zizou Bergs: form and statistics
Without a doubt, Zizou Bergs ranked world No. 44, showed a stellar performance in 2025 with a winning record of 24-22, which is quite a breakthrough. He has been rapidly moving up the ranking ladder from No.60 in January, to a top 50 player by March after his first ATP final run in Auckland as a qualifier. His total income amounted to $1.08M, having made it to the finals twice (ASB Classic, Libema Open) and the semis of Open 13. According to the ATP stats, he kept an 18-12 record on hard courts, mixing his power game with a newly found consistency at the age of 26.
Bergs had an incredible performance in Shanghai: He defeated No. 25 Sebastian Korda in straight sets (6-4, 7-5) and later was given a walkover by No. 11 Casper Ruud (injured). In the third round, he triumphed over Francesco Cerundolo 7-6(1), 6-3, converting 78% of his first serves while saving 4 of the 5 break points he faced. The highlight of the tournament was perhaps the match against No. 31 Gabriel Diallo, a 3-6, 7-5, 7-6(8) thriller in which he saved two match points with a drop shot winner after 2h30m—the first time he has reached a Masters QF. The important fact is that Bergs had won all the sets prior to the match against Diallo, and he now has a record of 3-1 in deciding sets at this tournament.
Bergs is a right-hander and plays with a two-handed backhand. He is an aggressive baseline player: with an explosive forehand (25% of winners), 82% of the first serve points won on a hardcourt (at second-tour level), and 15% of the winning shots being drop-shots in this tournament. He is highly ranked in break-point conversion (38%) and rally length (5.2 shots), and uses the variety of his game to unsettle his opponents. Although ATP says that his 75% of successful net approaches and 11 aces per match are perfect for Shanghai's bounce, double faults (3.1 per match) are holding him back when he is under pressure.
Bergs, named after Zinedine Zidane, made his ATP debut in 2020, and won his first match right away. His 2025 breakthrough is somewhat similar to his eight Challenger titles including the one in Tallahassee. After the match with Diallo, he said to the reporters: "At 26, I keep getting better every day—it's unbelievable," which led to a social media explosion with #ZizouMania (10K mentions). Fans call him "Belgium's Zidane," according to Puntodebreak, whereas @ZizouBergs tweeted: "Heart over everything," which got 20K likes.
Bergs' offensive game (25% forehand winners) might be the one to exploit Djokovic's second serve (55% win rate) condition, particularly if the situation is hot and the Serb's mobility is getting weaker.
🇷🇸 Novak Djokovic: form and statistics
Djokovic, ranked 5th in the world, boasts a remarkable 34-10 record for the year 2025 and includes a milestone 100th ATP title at the Geneva Open - his first hard-court final since Miami (runner-up). At the age of 38, he has managed to reach the semifinals at all four Grand Slam tournaments, setting a record as the oldest player to do so, however, he has opted to skip several tournaments to take care of his fitness. According to ATP records, his win percentage on hard-courts stands at 77% (33-10), with one of his best performances being in Shanghai: 40-6 throughout the years, 4 titles (2013, 2015, 2018, 2019).
In the opening round at Shanghai, Djokovic was very efficient in securing a 7-6(2), 6-4 victory over Marin Cilic, during which he served 8 aces and counted 82% of the first-serve points won in 1h54m. It was a battle of stamina for Djokovic as he managed to trounce Hanfmann 4-6, 7-5, 6-3 while also recuperating from a vomiting episode and heat cramps—being his second-longest best-of-three match this year (2h45m). The Thursday encounter with Munar was not an easy one for Djokovic as he suffered an ankle injury, had to go for a medical timeout, but with a determined spirit and 71% first-serve wins (9.6 forehand quality, 84 mph average) he was able to finish in 2h20m, during which he was broken only twice. Pivotal moment: breaking at 5-4 in the third after a 20-shot rally, falling down from exhaustion but yelling back.
It's evident that Djokovic's all-court mastery is a major factor on hard courts: 42% return points won (tour-leading), 88% first-serve hold rate, and 8 aces per match average. His defensive skills—covering 12.4m per point—and rally extension (5.8 shots average) are very effective in fighting off his opponents' attacks, according to Infosys ATP Stats. He has been 80% successful in deciding sets this year, and he is particularly comfortable with Shanghai's medium-fast pace (Dimitrov Speed Index 40). In terms of psychological strength, he cannot be broken and under pressure, he is the most efficient player who saves 65% of break points. Shanghai is a reminder of the times when Djokovic was at his best: he has never lost here in QFs (10-0).
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Zizou Bergs vs Novak Djokovic Head-to-Head Statistics
Djokovic and Bergs are face-to-face for the very first time and haven't had any prior matches on any surface - a new rivalry warming up in Shanghai. Djokovic's 92% success rate against sub-top-50 players (45-4 in 2025) is definitely on his side, however, Bergs' upset streak (three seeds in this tournament) makes the situation more interesting. So, it would be reasonable to expect 22+ games, with an average of 5.5 shots per rally, as per the ATP data. The hard courts are definitely helping Djokovic's defense (42% returns), nevertheless, Bergs' power is becoming more and more effective in these fast conditions which is bringing the possibility of a competitive straight-sets grind or a three-set surprise quite close.
Zizou Bergs vs Novak Djokovic Betting Tips and Odds
- Over 21.5 Total Games: The number of games in Djokovic's last three Shanghai matches have been around 23; Bergs vs. Diallo battle went up to 31. The heat is favorable for longer rallies (5.5 shots on average).
- Djokovic to Win 2-0 Sets: He has been very successful in 2023, only once out of eight matches, where he lost in straight sets to a non-top-20 player; Bergs has only 40% of the matches in which he hasn't dropped a set in the 2025 QFs.
- Djokovic Under 10.5 Games Lost: In 80% of his wins on hard court, he has managed to lose 8 games or less; Bergs only manages to convert 35% of breaks against the top-5 serves.
- Djokovic Over 8.5 Aces: In Shanghai, his average is 9 aces/match.; Munar's 71% first-serve rate signals that it will be a big serving match.
- Bergs Over 2.5 Double Faults: His aggressive style gives him an average of 3.1; pressure against Djokovic's returns will most likely cause an increase in errors.
Zizou Bergs vs Novak Djokovic Match Prediction
Djokovic is exploiting Bergs' 55% second-serve vulnerability with a 42% return points won, but the heat—which is causing 20% more energy to be consumed per point, as per ATP biomechanics—is bringing the level of the game back to equal after Nole's Munar collapse. Their first H2H is in favor of Djokovic's IQ, however, Bergs' 75% net success and Diallo heroics (saving two match points) ignite the possibility of an upset. Some polls indicate that 78% of people are supporting Djokovic, but #ZizouMania is trending with fans promoting his "heart of a lion" attribute.
An encounter, full of tactical nuances, could be expected: Djokovic would be shortening the points with 84 mph forehands while Bergs would be disrupting the rhythm with his variety. Djokovic manages a gritty straight-sets victory by a narrow margin, thus moving forward to his 98th Masters SF—his calmness in 80% of the deciding sets being his strong point.
Below are my top 3 bets for this match:
Our main prediction: Over 20.5 Games @ 1.6 odds on 1xbet
Our betting tip for the match: Djokovic win 2-0 @ 1.72 odds on Betway
Our final betting tip for the match: Djokovic win 2-0 @ 1.80 odds on Bet365
Other predictions
