In the aftermath of the Boxing Day tsunami in 2004, an important effort is underway to interconnect seismic networks and to provide early alarms quantifying the level of tsunami risk within 15 minutes of an earthquake. However, in the open ocean, detecting, characterizing, and imaging tsunami waves is still a challenge. The offshore vertical tsunami displacement (on the order of a few centimeters up to half a meter in the case of the Sumatra tsunami) is hidden in the natural ocean wave fluctuations, which can be several meters or more. In addition, the number of offshore instruments capable of tsunami measurements, such as tide gauges and buoys, is very limited - there are only about 70 buoys in the whole world. As a tsunami propagates with a typical speed of 600-700 km per hour, a 15-minute confirmation system would require a worldwide buoy network with a 150-kilometer spacing.
In many cases, the tsunami can only be identified several hours after the seismic event due to the poor distribution of sensors. This delay is necessary for the tsunami to reach the buoys and for the signal to be recorded for a minimum of one wave period (a typical tsunami wave period is between 10 and 40 minutes) to be adequately filtered by removing the "noise" due to normal wave action.
In the case of the December 2004 Sumatra event, the first tsunami measurements by any instrumentation were only made available about three hours after the earthquake via the real-time tide gauge at the Cocos Islands in the southeast Indian Ocean. Up until that time, the tsunami could not be fully confirmed and coastal areas remained vulnerable to tsunami damage. This delay in confirmation is a fundamental weakness of the existing tsunami warning systems.
Clues in the ionosphere
Recently, observational and modeling results have confirmed the existence and detectability of a tsunamigenic signature in the ionosphere. Physically, the displacement induced by tsunamis at the sea surface is transmitted into the atmosphere where it produces internal gravity waves (IGWs) propagating upward. (When a fluid or gas parcel is displaced at an interface, or internally, to a region with a different density, gravity restores the parcel toward equilibrium resulting in an oscillation about the equilibrium state; hence the term gravity wave.) The normal ocean surface variability has a typical high frequency (compared to tsunami waves) and does not transfer detectable energy into the atmosphere. In other words, the Earth's atmosphere behaves as an "analog low-pass filter." Only a tsunami produces propagating waves in the atmosphere. During the upward propagation, these waves are strongly amplified by the double effects of the conservation of kinetic energy and the decrease of atmospheric density resulting in a local displacement of several tens of meters per second at 300 km altitude in the atmosphere. This displacement can reach a few hundred meters per second for the largest events.
At an altitude of about 300 kilometers, the neutral atmosphere is strongly coupled with the ionospheric plasma producing perturbations in the electron density. These perturbations are visible in GPS and satellite altimeter data since those signals have to transit the ionosphere. The dual-frequency signal emitted by GPS satellites can be processed to obtain the integral of electron density along the paths between the satellites and the receiver, the total electron content (TEC).
Within about 15 minutes, the waves generated at the sea surface reach ionospheric altitudes, creating measurable fluctuations in the ionospheric plasma and consequently in the TEC. This indirect method of tsunami detection should be helpful in ocean monitoring, allowing us to follow an oceanic wave from its generation to its propagation in the open ocean.
So, can ionospheric sounding provide a robust method of tsunami confirmation‾ It is our hope that in the future this technique can be incorporated into a tsunami early-warning system and complement the more traditional methods of detection including tide gauges and ocean buoys. Our research focuses on whether ground-based GPS TEC measurements combined with a numerical model of the tsunami-ionosphere coupling could be used to detect tsunamis robustly. Such a detection scheme depends on how the ionospheric signature is related to the amplitude of the sea surface displacement resulting from a tsunami. In the near future, the ionospheric monitoring of TEC perturbations might become an integral part of a tsunami warning system that could potentially make it much more effective due to the significantly increased area of coverage and timeliness of confirmation.
Two types of ionospheric anomaly were observed during the Sumatra event. Anomalies of the first type, detected worldwide in the first few hours after the earthquake, were reported from north of Sumatra, in Europe and in Japan. They are associated with the surface seismic waves that propagate around the world after an earthquake rupture (so-called Rayleigh waves).
Anomalies of the second type were detected above the ocean and were clearly associated with the tsunami. In the Indian Ocean, the occurrence times of TEC perturbations observed using ground-based GPS receivers and satellite altimeters were consistent with the observed tsunami propagation speed. The GPS observations from sites to the north of Sumatra show internal gravity waves most likely coupled with the tsunami or generated at the source and propagating independently in the atmosphere. The link with the tsunami is more evident in the observations elsewhere in the Indian Ocean. The TEC perturbations observed by the other ground-based GPS receivers moved horizontally with a velocity coherent with the tsunami propagation.
The amplitude of the observed TEC perturbations is strongly dependent on the filter method used. The four TECU-level peak-to-peak variations in filtered GPS TEC measurements from north of Sumatra are coherent with the differential TEC at the 0.4 TECU per 30 seconds level observed in the rest of the Indian Ocean. (One TEC unit or TECU is 1016 electrons per meter-squared, equivalent to 0.162 meters of range delay at the GPS L1 frequency.) Such magnitudes can be detected using GPS measurements since GPS phase observables are sensitive to TEC fluctuations at the 0.01 TECU level. We emphasize also the role of the elevation angle in the detection of tsunamigenic perturbations in the ionosphere. As a consequence of the integrated nature of TEC and the vertical structure of the tsunamigenic perturbation, low-elevation angle geometry is more sensitive to the tsunami signature in the GPS data, hence it is more visible.
Modeling TEC perturbations
The link between the tsunami at sea level and the perturbation observed in the ionosphere has been demonstrated using a 3D numerical modeling based on the coupling between the ocean surface, the neutral atmosphere, and the ionosphere. The modeling reproduced the TEC data with good agreement in amplitude as well as in the waveform shape, and quantified it by a cross-correlation. The resulting shift of +/-1 degree showed the presence of zonal and meridional winds neglected in the modeling. The presence of the wind can, indeed, introduce a shift of 1 degree in latitude and 1.5 degrees in longitude.
The coupled tsunami model described earlier can also be used to compute a prediction for the tsunami-generated TEC perturbation based on the seismic displacement as an input parameter to the model. The model prediction may be used as a detection aid by indicating the location of the tsunami wave front with time. This permits us to focus our detection efforts on specific locations and times, and will allow us to discriminate signal from noise.
The model also provides information on the expected magnitude of the TEC perturbation. This provides further value in filter discrimination. Cross-correlations can be performed on nearby observations using different satellites and stations to take advantage of tsunami-related perturbations being coherent in geometry and distance from the epicenter. Once the signal is detected in data from multiple satellites and stations, we can "track" and image the tsunami during its propagation in space and time.
Giovanni Occhipinti received his Ph.D. at the Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPGP) in 2006. In 2007, he joined NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), California Institute of Technology, as a postdoctoral fellow to continue his work on the detection and modeling of tsunamigenic perturbations in the ionosphere
Attila Komjathy is senior staff member of the Ionospheric and Atmospheric Remote Sensing Group of Tracking Systems and Applications Section at JPL
Philippe Lognonné is the director of the Space Department of IPGP
This article originally appeared in GPS World