I have spent a lot of time over the last year pondering and reporting on the merits of next-generation broadband networks such as FTTH compared to wireless broadband offerings such as Wimax, HSPA+ and LTE in its various guises. My opinion has always been that fixed broadband far and away outperforms its wire-free cousins and would always be my preference. But today I'm not so sure.
It seems the only time I connect to an Ethernet port these days is in hotel rooms (and usually to connect a personal Wi-Fi router) or at home for connecting a Wi-Fi modem/router. The rest of the time I am 100% wireless. My phone, my iPad and my notebook are all unencumbered and free to roam around as often as I do and, for the most part, without issue. Yet, in the back of my mind, I still feel that plugging my PC directly into the fiber network is a far more satisfying experience performance-wise.
However, after speaking with Jaikishan (Jai) Rajaraman, GSMA's senior director for Asia Pacific, I'm beginning to question not only my own preferences but also those of countries embarking on the rollout of national FTTH broadband networks. It seems countries like China, India, Japan, Indonesia and South Korea planning massive LTE network rollouts agree. Jai estimates that 127 million people in APAC alone will be LTE connected to the internet by 2015 - 50% in China alone and 10% from Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia, Taiwan and the Philippines.
Jai explained that the two dominant LTE strains - TD-LTE and LTE FDD - each has different spectrum requirements and therefore different benefits. However, moves are afoot to promote the convergence of the two standards. TD-LTE, for example, works with unpaired spectrum mainly available in 2.3- and 2.6-GHz bands and with so little contiguous spectrum available in most markets, it has its advantages.
It is the 700-MHz spectrum that holds the most promise. Currently used in many markets mainly for free-to-air TV service, this low-frequency band offers greater distance and better in-building coverage. The reallocation and release of this spectrum will be at the mercy of regulators, but there will be no shortage of takers when it becomes available. LTE, by design, is very efficient at using spectrum, but one of the challenges facing chipset and device manufacturers is the multiple spectra any one device may need to connect to, potentially 15 or more, and the more per device the shorter the battery life.
Just a year away
Jai feels that 2012 will be the tipping point for LTE. It is very efficient in supporting data and media and, for developing countries with large landmasses, offers the fastest and potentially most efficient, cost-effective way of rolling out wireless national broadband networks that are funded privately by operators and not from the national coffers.
The importance of broadband for both developing and developed economies is highlight in the often-reported figure that a 10-percentage-point increase in broadband penetration can lead to a GDP increase of about 1.2% in developed economies. This is a point not lost on most governments in Asia Pacific as internet accessibility becomes a national priority, and even obsession in some cases.
In many developing markets the move to LTE may well leapfrog 3G as economies of scale drive down the cost of network infrastructure and devices. The idea of having up to 100-Mbps broadband access and mobility would be good enough reason for many people to dump the fixed-line alternative. I would happily invest in a personal Wi-Fi router connected to an LTE network with backward compatibility to HSPA+. And LTE Advanced will boost that speed to 1 Gbps - matching the performance of FTTH.
This brings into question those countries that are investing billions of taxpayer dollars in FTTH rollouts when a more viable, more economical and more flexible wireless option is available. Watching the politics, cost escalations, delays and issues over the potential re-creation of past monopolies are surely reason enough to look at options like LTE.
Tony Poulos is the BSS evangelist for the TM Forum and a regulator contributor to Telecom Asia