A month or so ago, I told you that I didn't want a 3G iPhone. Since then, I've had many interesting and productive conversations with a lot of people who gave a spirited defense of the iPhone and its charms, none of which I disagreed with. And now, as I pound this out the day before they hit the shelves in Hong Kong (where I live) and 21 other countries, I've had a chance to review my position on the iPhone Conundrum.
Helpfully, I've also seen a couple of good reviews of the new iPhones, and - perhaps most importantly - I've seen how much one of them will cost me. 3 Hong Kong released its price plan a couple of weeks ago, and it does include subsidies in exchange for a contract. So I can have one for free if I care to change my service provider. And why not‾ This is Hong Kong - I do that at least every couple of years anyway.
And so, I have come here today to announce the following:
I still don't want an iPhone.
Many of my initial reasons remain unchanged - the iPhone is not a sufficient replacement for both my handset and my iPod. On the phone angle alone, it's a tough sell to substitute my current handset with a new handset that doesn't have a 5-megapixel camera, or a removable battery, or - to hear the NYT's David Pogue tell it - a weak GPS antenna (that would do me little good in Hong Kong's urban canyons anyway).
But the real reason is that the 3G iPhone will come tied to a carrier - not with a SIM lock, but with a contract and pre-installed software settings that, if my previous experience with Sharp handsets is anything to go by, will be a major pain to change if I decide to change carriers once the contract ends.
Even the package plan isn't that appealing. 3 HK is offering four price plans that, confusingly, separate "data" from "text and multimedia content". Only one offers unlimited data for HK$498 (nearly $64) a month, which also gets you either a free 8GB iPhone or a HK$138 16GB model. The other plans cap data usage at 500MB.
I'm not sure how fast it would take me to burn through 500MB on a handset. On the other hand, that's kind of the point. I don't want to lock myself into a two-year contract to find out.
Nor do I particularly want to pay more than double what I pay for unlimited fixed-line broadband just to get the same service on my handset.
In a way, the iPhone plan shows how far the cellular industry has to go with mobile data. Simple flat rate plans are what make fixed broadband appealing, and cellcos know they need to go this route if they want to play in the mobile Internet space, but many of them can't seem to bring themselves to do it. Not yet.
However, one interesting knock-on effect of the iPhone's arrival in Hong Kong is its impact on the overall mobile data market. Just as the iPhone has transformed the way handset makers approach handset design, its success as a mobile data driver in the US and Europe has forced cellcos to rethink their mobile data plans - especially the ones who have to compete against rivals who have iPhone deals with Apple.
Two HK cellcos have already launched pre-emptive strikes against 3 HK with shiny new mobile data packages. PCCW mobile - which already has a fixed/HSPA modem/Wi-Fi package in its arsenal - is going for the price-war strategy, offering unlimited mobile data for just under HK$400 a month. SmarTone-Vodafone is fighting fire with fire, offering its boutique Sharp SX862 handset and the HTC Touch Diamond (the iPhone's closest rival at the moment) via special package plans.
All of which testifies further to the iPhone's power as a game-changer. For all its flaws (and my grousing aside, they are minor things), the iPhone is driving handset designs, user interfaces and business models into uncharted territory, and not a moment too soon.
Still don't want one, though.