BIG vs FURIA Esports Prediction: the most intriguing series of the first day of the major

The second CS:GO major of the 2022 competition season will take place from October 31 to November 13. Twenty-four teams have qualified through the regional RMR qualifiers and eight of them will begin their journey at the Legends stage, while another sixteen will start off at the Challengers stage. The winner of the IEM Rio Major 2022 will receive $500,000, BLAST ranking points, and invites to ESL Katowice 2023 and BLAST Premier: World Final.

The tournament will be held in two stages. The first is the Challengers Stage. At this stage, 16 teams will compete for eight slots of the Legends stage. The Challengers Stage matches are played in a Swiss system (each team plays for points until they have three wins or three losses). The elimination matches will be BO3, while the rest will be BO1.

BIG and FURIA Esports will play their match in the Challengers stage. They will determine the winner of the meeting in the BO1 series. In the BO1 series, they will determine the winner of the meeting. Which team will be closer to qualifying for the Legends stage

The German organization was dissatisfied with the results of its roster in the summer and made some changes. K1to, who constantly stood-in for BIG at big tournaments, replaced veteran team member tiziaN in the roster. The player from the academy didn't need an adaptation and knew all the strategies. Therefore the change shouldn't have had a negative impact on the first results of the Germans in big tournaments. However, the fall tournaments show the opposite.

Yes, tiziaN didn't excel in the matches anymore, he rarely finished them with positive statistics, his individual shooting was severely impaired. But k1to has taken over the role of a support and he's also not doing as well as he should. The disciplined "German machine" breaks down against Neels' unfortunate highlights - he misses and loses important rounds for his team from advantageous positions at ESL Pro League Season 16, and his average HLTV rating has been 0.95 with a measly 68 damage per round in the last three tournaments.

BIG is missing another player with high firepower, and captain tabseN basically carries the team solo. He does 84 damage per round, makes 0.75 kills, and contributes an average of 1.22 impact. If the team leader's game doesn't go well, BIG is guaranteed to lose. However, even in the series against Heroic in RMR-qualifications none of his teammates supported him. At the end of the tournament Johannes entered the top 10 players with an average rating of 1.27, and his dedicated play was a fundamental factor in reaching the major.

Dust2 is no longer the German's signature map - he only won four times in nine maps. Only Mirage has a positive 60% win rate. We can only hope for another "miracle" from the captain in the first game against FURIA Esports, otherwise the Brazilians have a high chance to win the first point.

FURIA Esports has been a steady performer in 2022 international tournaments. The team made the playoffs of ESL Pro League Season 16, PGL Antwerp Major 2022, IEM Dallas 2022, ESL Pro League Season 16. At two tournaments it made the top 4. At each tournament, analysts note the strength of the Brazilian team and never spare it a potential place in the final stage of tournaments. However, FURIA Esports never managed to win the trophy. It was considered the best team in America in the domestic arena before the Team Liquid reshuffle, but YEKINDAR is hinting more and more often that the Liquid should now be considered the top 1 of the region.

KSCERATO is considered the biggest star of the Brazilian team. He was the second most statistically active player in the Malta event at the last ESL Pro League Season 16. He played 15 maps, his Kill/Deaths score is +102, and his average rating is 1.34. He did 85 damage per map at the tournament, dealt 0.8 kills, contributed 1.31 to the impact and died 0.56 times. All stats can be multiplied by one and a half when FURIA Esports plays against top-5 teams from the HLTV rankings - the rifler goes crazy in those games and has an average rating of 1.51 per map. He was among the best in open duels and had positive stats from the pistol rounds. The star of the squad has been consistently good throughout the season, and you can't expect him to play poorly in front of the home stands.

Overall, the team has several advantages over its opponents in the group. First, FURIA Esports won 49% of its rounds on the offensive side at ESL Pro League Season 16, the third-highest score at the tournament. It also handled 5x4 situations elegantly (80% win rate), with an average round win rate of 53.5%. The Brazilians would prefer to play Nuke, where they only lost once out of five attempts, and Ancient, where they had three wins out of three.

In the group stages, FURIA Esports rarely has trouble getting to the next stage. It may lose a series or two, but in the prospect of one-stage matches, it almost always finishes with a positive record. With all due respect to Johannes, KSCERATO is a big threat to the entire BIG lineup in this series. Besides, he will have more precise teammates to help him. The home arena will also be an extra advantage for the Brazilians. All the conditions are perfect for FURIA Esports to begin their performance in the major with a victory.

The teams met twice in 2022: in Antwerp and IEM Dallas 2022. FURIA Esports was stronger in Europe and BIG was stronger in the USA.

In matches against the top 20 HLTV, the German team very rarely fails to score 10 rounds per map, often adding overtime to the meeting. The match will last over 26.5 rounds. The odds on this outcome is 1.80.

The first half of the map will be won by FURIA Esports. The odds on this outcome is 1.76.

It is worth believing in added overtime. The odds on this outcome are 6.50.