Heroic vs BIG: A very important match for the Germans

The most crucial stage of IEM Fall 2021 Europe begins on October 5. Only five participants out of 11 from Europe have been decided in the majors, and the playoffs will determine the remaining lucky ones. We will find out who will qualify for the main tournament and who will be left empty-handed very soon.

Heroic and BIG will play their match for 9th-12th place on October 5. While the Danes have already qualified for the majors, the Germans need to win and go into the points. Otherwise, they will not qualify for the PGL Major Stockholm 2021. Will BIG be able to pull off such an important win?

Heroic have managed to meet the main objective and make it to the majors. The upcoming match doesn’t matter much to them. I don’t think it makes any difference for the team to place tenth or 12th. At IEM Fall 2021 Europe, the Danes have had mixed success. The lads have had some good matches, as well as some utter failures. In terms of maps, Heroic will almost certainly spade Inferno with their map. Right now, it’s the team’s best map in terms of win rate. The Danes have won four games in a row, while the Germans have only a 25% win rate, which pushes Inferno to be the pick. If the Danes needed to win, I’d have practically no doubt that Heroic would take Inferno, but considering that this match is crucial for the Germans and irrelevant for the Danes, the balance of power even on such a handy map can change. Also, there’s a minimal chance for the Danes to spike Nuke, but in the last few games, Heroic lost a lot in win rate, and that’s not what I’d like to see.

BIG are not in an easy position. The Germans need to go into the points in this tournament. Otherwise, they will be without the majors, which will be a real failure for the team. Overall, the team’s chances look good, especially when you consider that the Danes don’t need this match at all, and they can play with almost 100% concentration. If you look at the maps, things don’t look good for the Germans. They are pretty uncomfortable playing against the Danes, which is ideally confirmed by the face-to-face matches. It is difficult for BIG to pick against Heroic. They can’t play their best map because the Danes will get banned on Dust2. On Vertigo, Heroic are not weaker, and maybe even stronger than the Germans, with Nuke the same story. The Germans have only played two games on Overpass in the last three months, and they have a 25% win rate on Inferno. That leaves Mirage, where we should expect complete randomness. Both teams play this map very erratically, and it’s hard to predict anything here. But Mirage is the only map in 2021 that the Germans could beat Heroic, and it’s hard to pick a more logical pick, even though both teams are unstable. But here, I suggest that the word must rather than head-to-head stats or handy maps should be used as the starting point. The Germans need this win. The Danes don’t need it at all. BIG know how to play crucial matches and must show their best qualities in today’s game.

Heroic would look like the favourite if they needed this match as much as the Germans do. But given that BIG will be far more motivated, the Germans have won four of their last five matches gives BIG a chance of success. The bookmakers are offering odds of 2.72 on a BIG win, which looks like a good option. It is also possible to bet on the Germans with a handicap (-2.5) for odds of 3.38.