Cruzeiro vs Bahia Prediction: Same goals, same points

Two teams tied on points and fighting to avoid relegation go head-to-head. Cruzeiro and Bahia have 34 points and are four points ahead of Vasco da Gama, the first team in the red zone. Both teams come from moralizing victories; Cruzeiro won the Clássico Mineiro at the stadium of its rival Atlético-MG, while Bahia won at home against Fortaleza, Copa Sudamericana finalist. It was the Baianos' third win in a row. Cruzeiro, however, must overcome the Mineirão trauma, a stadium where the team has yet to win in this league edition.

The Fox has only won three times at home in the Brasileirão, and all of those wins were achieved at the Arena Independência, América-MG's stadium. At a certain point, the Rabbit ceased to rent its stadium to the rival due to financial differences, and since then, the Mineirão has been the venue for Cruzeiro's home games. If it beats Bahia, the Cabuloso will overcome this blockade that has been very detrimental to the team. A tactical game is expected, as was the case in the match with Atlético Mineiro, which ended in a surprising 1-0 victory for Cruzeiro.

Under the command of Rogério Ceni, the Tricolor has been able to pick up more wins, and its position in the standings has improved considerably. It's true that the four points above the Z4 are not enough to put the Baianos at ease, but confidence is high with the current 13th place after having occupied the relegation places for some part of the season. With three wins in a row, confidence has never been higher, and Bahia will head to Belo Horizonte looking to pick up at least a point.

I can't consider Cruzeiro the favorite since the team has never won at the Mineirão. However, the confidence gained after the magnificent victory at the rival's home increases the Fox's chances. Bahia is going through its best period of the season, and it's worth remembering. Cruzeiro's defense is one of the most competent in the Série A, so my pick is a Total Goals Under 2.5 bet.