Sporting Cristal vs Flamengo: the Bookmakers Overestimate Flamengo

In the first round of the Copa Libertadores, the Peruvian team Sporting Cristal will face Brazilian Flamengo. Despite the field factor, the bookmakers are on the side of the Brazilians. Moreover, bookmakers have little doubt that the team from Rio de Janeiro will bring three points from Peru.

In March-April 2022, Sporting Cristal had four matches, getting two victories and two draws. All these games were played in the Peruvian championship. After seven games within the national championship Sporting Cristal is in seventh position, 12 points and six points behind Binacional, the leader of the Peruvian championship. Cristal's home statistics are seventh in the division, with two wins, two draws and a goal difference of 11:7.

The Red and Blacks go to Peru in a bad mood, after losing the final of the Carioca state championship to their most important rival, Fluminense. The first final at the Maracana ended 2:0 in favor of Fla. In the second leg, they made an unsuccessful attempt to restore the status quo, but instead, the game resulted in a 1:1 draw, which completely satisfied Tricolour. Before Fluminense, Flamengo had a 4-match successful streak. It seemed the team was in good shape to win the Carioca State championship. Now the bookmakers consider the Red and Blacks to be the favorites again, just like in the state championship final. Let's see if the know-it-alls are right this time.

In four home games, Sporting Cristal scored 11 goals, or an average of 2.75 per game. The Peruvians did not score less than two goals per game. In turn, Flamengo can not boast the solidity of their defense. The Red and Blacks played several shutouts in March, but Flamengo conceded in many more games. We think the bookmakers underestimate the home team and expect a goal by the Peruvians.

Flamengo has already been overestimated in the Carioca state final when Fluminense outplayed its opponent quite confidently on the sum of two matches. Sporting Cristal has not lost once on its arena in 2022, there is reason to believe that the positive series of Peruvians will last. 

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