The global LTE subscriber base is on track to grow at a 35% CAGR over the next five years, reaching 2.3 billion by 2019, TeleGeography has predicted.
Market growth will in part be driven by China, where the proportion of wireless subscribers using LTE is tipped to grow from 8% at the end of 2014 to 39% by 2019. By this point, China alone will make up nearly a third of global LTE subscribers.
In markets that have been leading adoption to date, LTE's market share is meanwhile set to dominate even further.
In South Korea, the world's leading LTE market by adoption, 63% of wireless subscribers were using LTE by the end of 2014. This proportion is expected to increase to between 80% and 90% by the end of the forecast period.
But even though several markets are moving to retire 2G services – with Singapore being the latest to announce such a plan – TeleGeography does not expect the standard to disappear anytime soon.
By 2019 global 3G subscribers are anticipated to finally surpass 2G subscribers, yet both standards will account for a larger share of subscribers than LTE.
“LTE is growing at a faster rate than 3G ever did,” TeleGeography analyst Mark Gibson said.
“However, while 3G subscribers are declining in the US and Europe, they continue to grow in all other regions — most notably in Africa where they are expected to increase 19% compounded annually over the next five years. Therefore, despite its rapid growth, LTE may not surpass 3G on a global basis until early into the next decade.”
The GSA recently published statistics showing that LTE has dominated new subscription growth worldwide during the past three quarters.