Telco revenues exceed $1.9tr in 2011
Operator revenues passed the $1.9 trillion mark in 2011, up 7% from $1.8 trillion in 2010. The growth stems from a recovery in both fixed and mobile, whose sales grew 3% and 10% respectively.
Strongest growth came in the BRIC countries (up 14%), while the weakest result was in Europe ex-Russia (up 3%). Economic jitters caused budget cuts late in the year, hitting operator capex. Overall for 2011, capex grew 9% to $306 billion, due to double-digit percentage growth in the first three quarters; 4Q11 capex was down 1% YoY. Totals for the year were within our forecast range but slightly below the most likely case.
Among the top 10 capex spenders were two from North America (AT&T, Verizon), China’s three big carriers, NTT, and four European operators with multinational operations (DT, Telefonica, Vodafone, and FT). The largest 20 operators, as ranked by 2011 capex, accounted for just under 60% of both revenues and capex.
Ovum’s revenue and capex forecast is on track
Ovum’s December 2011 forecast of operator revenues and capex called for global revenues of $1.96 trillion and capex of $314bn in 2011. Actual results for 2011 were 2–3% below expectations, well within our forecast range. The fourth quarter was plagued with severe worries about debt in Europe that caused some large carriers – in multiple regions, not just Europe – to slow 4Q11 capex spending. Weaker economic growth also hit revenues, mobile slightly more than fixed. We expected fixed to account for 40% of revenues; it actually hit 41% of the total due to stronger-than-expected fixed broadband revenue growth.
Looking ahead, some macroeconomic challenges have eased in 2012, such as US unemployment and Greece’s debt crisis. Equity markets are picking up – the NASDAQ index for instance has risen nearly 20% since January 1, hitting a five-year high. These and other signs of a slowly improving economy are consistent with assumptions in our 2011 forecast. Further improvement should help meet our 2012 revenue and capex growth targets of 3% and 6%, respectively, although plenty of downside risk remains.
By region, the only sizable 2011 surprise came in Middle East & Africa, where actual revenues and capex were 10% and 7% lower than expected. This region continued to suffer from political volatility at year-end, which affected some carriers’ expansion plans. Note that Chinese vendors are disproportionately strong in MEA, so the capex weakness there affects them more than some rivals. Fortunately for them, China ended 2011 strong with $45.4 billion in capex, in line with the $45.7 billion we anticipated. North America, meanwhile, posted revenues a comforting 2% above forecast, but weak 4Q spending by Verizon and Sprint limited 2011 capex to 4% below forecast.