At the end of June 2012, Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs Communications awarded rights to the use of 700-MHz spectrum to NTT DoCoMo, KDDI and e-Mobile.
While Softbank is absent from the list, the operator was to sole recipient of spectrum in the 900-MHz ‘Platinum Band’ in February 2012. At 700-MHz, a total of 2 x 30 MHz is allocated in 2 x 10 MHz blocks to DoCoMo, KDDI and e-Mobile.
However, according to announcements from the operators they will not commercialize LTE services using 700-MHz spectrum until 2015 when operators anticipate widespread migration of 3G subscribers to 4G.
DoCoMo launched its LTE service in 2010 initially based on refarming part of its 2.1-GHz spectrum. In its year end March 2012 reporting, the operator confirmed plans to use licensed spectrum in both the 800-MHz and 1.5 GHz bands to support its Xi LTE service. Always aggressive in its LTE targets, DoCoMo now claims 3 million 4G subscribers, up from 2.225 million in March 2012 and 1.14 million reported customers in December 2011.
This dramatic short-term increase in subscribers is in part a result of the launch of Xi-enabled Smartphones in November 2011. DoCoMo has set a target of 10 million LTE subscribers by March 2013, and 30 million 4G subscribers by March 2016. The operator is aiming for LTE network population coverage of 70% by March 2013 and 98% in March 2014. At the end of March 2012, DoCoMo reported an LTE base station count of 7,000.
eMobile launched its LTE service on March 15, 2012 using spectrum in the 1.7-GHz band. It is important to note the overlap of Japan’s 1700-MHz band (1750-1785/1845-1880) with the more traditional 1800-MHz GSM band (1710-1785/1805-1880) At launch the network had 40% population coverage and by the end of March 2012 the operator reported an LTE subscriber base of 218,000.
eMobile is targeting 50% 4G population coverage by June 2012, increasing to 70% in March 2013. With only 30-MHz of spectrum exclusively within the 1.7 GHz band, eMobile’s spectrum holdings are dwarfed in comparison to its competitors which all hold well over 100-MHz of spectrum across multiple bands, Securing 700-MHz spectrum was therefore of critical importance to eMobile. The operator will use the lower band spectrum to expand its LTE coverage.
KDDI is yet to launch its LTE service and has revised target commercialization dates a number of times. The operator is expected to launch service by December 2012 using a combination of 800-MHz and 1.5-GHz spectrum where it holds 30 MHz and 20 MHz respectively in these bands. KDDI is also planning to use 2100-MHz as part of its LTE launch. In its March 2012 year end results reporting KDDI outlined an aggressive rollout plan to reach 96% LTE population coverage by March 2013. This coverage plan will necessarily demand an expedited launch plan before the end of the year.
Softbank launched its 4G offering in February 2012 using 2500-MHz TDD spectrum acquired from PHS operator Willcom. In July 2012 the operator reported an LTE base station count of 7,000 and the acquisition of 100,000 subscribers. As noted, the operator was awarded 30 MHz of spectrum in the 900-MHz band earlier this year and it will use this spectrum to augment its LTE plans. Softbank has outlined a 900MHz base station rollout plan of 16,000 by March 2013, increasing to 41,000 by March 2016 when population coverage will reach 99%. The operator has announced plans to launch 900-MHz FDD LTE in Q3 2012.
As reflected in Tolaga’s Market Explorer, Japan’s diverse 4G deployments along with spectrum combinations across no less than seven bands (Exhibit 1), provide fertile ground for LTE market watchers. The aggressive population coverage plans detailed by Japan’s operators are facilitated by the fact that all operators now hold spectrum in lower and upper bands to support both network coverage and capacity requirements.