São Paulo vs Corinthians: Bet on the Underestimated Guests

Two legendary clubs from São Paulo will meet in the Campeonato Paulista semi-final: the homonymous club will host Corinthians at Morumbi. Paulista Tricolour are quoted as favorites. Do not forget that they are playing at home, and this factor tends to be crucial.

São Paulo won Group B before the Paulista playoffs, beating such clubs as Novorizontino, Ferroviaria and São Bernardo, and scoring 23 points in 12 games. The playoffs began with the quarterfinals, and the Paulista Tricolour played São Bernardo to defeat the opponent 4-1, thanks to goals from Rodrigo Nestor, Maia, Marquinhos and Calleri. It is interesting that São Paulo was the first to concede, 52 minutes into the game. And the fateful episode came in the 66th minute, as Paulinho was given his second yellow card immediately after the return goal by Rodrigo Nestor. After that, São Bernardo collapsed and conceded three times in the last 10 minutes. In addition to the Paulista matches, São Paulo held two matches in the Copa do Brasil, drawing with Campinense and beating Manaus 2-0.

Speaking of the squad changes, the team saw several players leave before the start of the season: Hlinho, Liziero, Dani Alves, João and Jonas Toro. And the team welcomed Jonathan Calleri, Patrick, Nikão, Alisson and Andres Colorado.

Corinthians surpassed their future opponent, São Paulo, in terms of personnel activity in the offseason. Ederson and Gabriel Pereira left the club for a total of 11.5 million euros, as well as Vital, Jemerson and Gabriel. Willian, Roger Guedes, Paulinho, Renato Augusto, Moraes and Giuliano took the vacated places. Corinthians now have an experienced, distinguished squad, but there are doubts about whether Timão are capable of competing at Serie A level for the lead. That said, Corinthians can certainly do a lot to win Campeonato Paulista, given their current schedule.

Corinthians won Group A. Timão scored 23 points in 12 games, won 7 matches with three defeats, with a goal difference of 19-9. The last five matches saw Corinthians lose twice, beaten by São Paulo and Palmeiras. In the match against São Paulo, Corinthians had the home advantage, which was never converted into goals.

The teams have played each other 72 times, +29=25-18, 94-79 goal difference in favor of Corinthians. Note the very high percentage of draws, 35%, which obviously increases the chances for the future guests. Corinthians won 14 of their 41 matches in Serie A, with 16 draws. At Morumbi, the opponents have played 38 matches, 12 of them won by the Paulista Tricolour, with 17 draws and 9 wins for Corinthians. In general, Corinthians have not lost more than two-thirds of their matches in this rivalry, which is something to make the fans of Timão happy.

Corinthians has a very experienced and skilled roster. We believe that Timão are quite capable to put up a fight against their geographical neighbors and, at least, not to lose the upcoming match. With the current rather unruly schedule, Corinthians will try to win the title at least at the state championship level. We believe that the bookmakers underestimate the away team. The first bet for you to consider is the Asian Handicap on Corinthians. H2 (+0.25) for 1.85 from 22bet.

Speaking of the guests being underestimated, São Paulo confidently beat São Bernardo in the last round of the playoffs. However, do not forget that in that game a lot was decided by the suspension of a São Bernardo player. Without that suspension, who knows how that game would have ended. It should be noted that Corinthians also played away in the Paulista quarterfinals, scoring a vital 1-0 win against Novorizontino, thanks to a goal by Guedes. W2 for 3.20 from Bet365.

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