São Paulo vs Fortaleza: Bet on the home team

The Copa do Brasil quarter-final will continue with the match between São Paulo and Fortaleza. This tournament is very important for both teams. It’s also interesting that Fortaleza is stronger playing at home rather than away. 

São Paulo dropped out of the Copa Libertadores on August 18, having losing to Palmeiras 0-3 at the Allianz Parque. After that defeat, the Tricolor won an away game against Sport Recife in Série A, improving their position in the standings. Still, it will be extremely hard for São Paulo to break into the top 4, so it’s much easier to win the Copa do Brasil in order to get into the next season of the Libertadores. Well, easier or not, that path is obviously shorter. In general, São Paulo is in good shape, as in their last 5 games they were defeated only once (an away loss to Palmeiras).

Fortaleza is extremely good at winning their home matches, so you should be careful betting on them as the away team. Unlike São Paulo, Fortaleza’s position in the Série A is more than great, so it would be reasonable of the visitors to focus on Brasiliero and fighting Bragantino and Flamengo for a place in the top-4. Staying within the top-6 is obvious. By the way, Fortaleza's next opponent in the Série A will be Cuiabá, so the Tricolor have all the chances to keep their position in the top-4. 

São Paulo has the advantage in terms of motivation. The team from Morumbi is rather close to getting into the Copa Libertadores qualifying zone. However, there’s extremely strong competition in the middle of the Série A, making it difficult to get to the top. Winning the Copa do Brasil is also not an easy task, but at least it doesn’t take up as much time. And Fortaleza, despite being 3rd in the Série A standings, is not that unbeatable of an opponent. We side with the home team in the upcoming game, but it’s important that, given the excellent home stats of Fortaleza, São Paulo is very likely to try not just to beat their opponent, but to leave something for the return match. Here are the odds for the game: 1X+TO 1.5 for 1.952, W1 for 2.06, Handicap 1 (-1.5) for 4.22.