Aris Thessaloniki vs FK Homiel Prediction: Greeks to leave opponent no chance

On July 22, 2022, the Greek city of Thessaloniki will host a second qualifying round of the Conference League, with the local Aris taking on Homiel at 21:00 (UTC+3).

Aris is a Greek team that has made great progress in recent years. Previously they were relegated to the mid-tier division, but for the last two years they've been finishing in the bronze medal column. While the Yellow-Blacks aren't likely to contend for the title in the near future, their lead over Olympiacos is now 21 points. Even a spot in the top-three is a big success for them. The God of War played five friendlies over the summer, picking up three wins and two draws, which confirms that they are in good shape.

Homiel is a Belarusian team that has been able to achieve an incredible breakthrough in the last couple of years. Back in 2020, they played in the country's second strongest division, where they finished second and made their way into the Premier League. The debut season in the elite turned out great for the White-Greens: they took fourth place immediately, and at the same time won Belarus Cup, which will now allow them to play on the European stage. In the current championship, Homiel's situation is not so good. They are only in eighth place in the standings, slowly but surely gaining momentum.

Aris and Homiel have never faced off before. The upcoming game will be their first-ever encounter.

For Aris, this is the third straight year their European campaign has begun more or less the same way. In the season 2020/21, they had to play against the Ukrainian Kolos in the second qualifying round, whom they sensationally lost to. In the 2021/22 Conference League qualification, they lost to the Kazakh Astana and now their opponent will be the Belarusian Homiel. It is high time for the Greeks to work on their mistakes, yet their opponent's level is not that high, so we can bet on Aris' victory with a (-2) handicap at odds of about 1.85.

Aris is one of the most closed teams in the Greek championship, which doesn't play much offensively and doesn't let opponents do anything either. Last season, the statistics show that the Yellow-Blacks scored only 67 goals in 36 games (1.86 goals per game on average), which is modest even by the standards of Greek soccer. Nevertheless, against the Belarusian middling, the hosts should play a productive game in attack, having a very solid selection of players on offense. Based on this, the best option seems to be Aris' Total Over (2.5) goals at odds close to 2.00.

Aris is a team that has had bad experiences against opponents from the former Soviet Union, so it is unlikely that they will rush to attack from the very first moment. Still, the confrontation is two games, with the return leg to be held on neutral territory, not in Belarus. All this promises the most cautious and closed start to the match, where no one will take any chances. After all, the cost of a mistake can be too high. In such a situation, it is worth looking at a bet on the fact that the first goal in the match will take place after the 28th minute at odds of about 2.10.

Our prediction: Handicap Aris (-2) for 1.85 at Bet365.

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