Netherlands vs Italy Prediction: Expect many goals

The Netherlands will face Italy in the Nations League match for third place. The bookmakers are giving a slight advantage to the Dutch, which makes sense, given the field factor. Having said that, it's worth paying attention to the statistics of their head-to-head encounters.

The Orange lost the Nations League semi-final to Croatia, although they were the first to open the scoring in that game. However, from the 72nd minute to the sixth added minute, the Croatian national team was already leading in the score. Still, Lang led the match into extra time (4:2). In all honesty, the Croats let themselves win and scored 3.38 goals in the xG index, while the Dutch scored 1.62. Overall, Koeman had a poor start, and the Orange were unimpressive in the semi-final, although they showed spirit in scoring a second goal in the sixth minute.

Italy also lost their semi-final game to Spain, although they had a chance of getting to the final. The Spaniards started strongly, and as early as the third minute, Pino scored a goal. However, eight minutes later, Ciro Immobile restored the status quo until the 88th minute. The decisive goal came from Joselu. Overall, the Spaniards were more active, owning the ball 61% of the game time and posting a 2.23 goals-against-average xG. Italy had an xG of 1.94, with eight and three shots on goal.

Even though the last head-to-head meetings between Italy and the Netherlands have been low-scoring, we think the upcoming encounter will be rich in goals. Firstly, the Netherlands is prolific, as Orange's recent statistics show. Secondly, the upcoming game is not a final; its level is several times lower; after all, third place in the Nations League is not an outstanding achievement for the top European sides. Thirdly, the Netherlands and Italy have not played each other using a total over (2.5) recently, but they have been exchanging goals regularly.