France vs USA Prediction: Offense to triumph over defense

The Olympic champions have been beating the Americans very rarely lately, with one win and four losses since 2019. The French lost to the U.S. even at the Olympics, and in three nil. And they lost on the block even when they won that only match in four years.

In the semifinals with the Italians, the French played some things like the French, and some things better than themselves. For example, they lost their serve 16 times in three sets. 11 aces is unimaginable and four blocks is not enough.

However, I would advise to pay attention not to how many blocks the French team put, but how many times they were blocked. N'Gapeth and his teammates had less than one and a half blocks per set before, but once was a good result.

The Americans also finished their semifinal in three sets. In that short time they lost their serve 11 times, had nine aces, set up six blocks and only two shutouts themselves.

Nine aces for the Americans and 11 for the French tell us, most likely, that their opponents came into their games unprepared. The score inside some sets, such as 25-13 in USA-Poland and 25-16 in France-Italy, also testifies to that. I mean that you should hardly expect 20 aces in three sets in the finals – the Poles do not have their reception any more.

But it's the blocks that interest us the most. France and the USA averaged 1.4 per set and were even better in the semifinals. But even if we take the averages, they will give us a maximum of 15 blocks in five sets.

As for their service errors, the French are undefeated here, and I would take their minus error margin, of course, but the odds are kind of boring.

These teams faced off in the group stage two weeks ago. That time the Americans won 3-2 in sets and 102-94 in points. The Americans were better on the block 9-5 (no 14.5 even in five sets), they lost 6-7 in aces, while the total number of service errors was 46 (26 for France).

The most interesting thing seems to be that bookmakers consider the French to be the unconditional favorites and offer odds around 1.5 for their win. The odds are 2.5 for a USA win. Such a skew in a final match is very rare, so I suggest this:

– Blocks Total Under (14.5) for 1.80;

– Points Total Over (185.5) for 1.83;

– W USA And Total Sets > 3.5 for 3.14.

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