Uruguay vs Ecuador: The Sky Blue to pick up three points

Ecuador beat Uruguay 4-2 in the first round of qualifying for the 2022 FIFA World Cup. Will Óscar Tabárez’s charges now get revenge for that defeat? We think the Sky Blue will win this time!

The last time the Uruguayan squad slipped past the World Cup was in 2006, and they have had three successive qualifying tournaments since then. Now, the Bianconeros are in slight danger of missing the final tournament, having suffered a severe setback too frequently. Oscar Tabárez’s side was winless in four games in a row before last weekend’s fixture, which took a heavy toll on their fortunes. Fortunately, they hosted a modest Bolivian national team, which they managed to win - 4:2, allowing the Uruguayans to climb up to fourth place in the standings.

The Ecuadorian squad is a far more modest team, who have only managed to qualify for the World Cup once in their last three attempts. Then they qualified for the 2014 World Cup in Brazil, where they finished at the group stage. The Tri are doing markedly better this term as they have suffered only three defeats in eight meetings, with two straight losses in June, unexpectedly heading into a crisis. Gustavo Alfaroэs side finished significantly better in September, first beating Ecuador 2-0, before sharing points with Chile, 0-0, to move up to the third place.

Throughout the history, the teams have played 37 head-to-head meetings. The Uruguayans have won 22 games. The Ecuadorians have been stronger in six of them, with nine games ending in a draw. The goal difference also favours the Sky Blue, 94-35. The last time the two sides met in the current World Cup 2022 qualifying fixture, Ecuador won 4-2.

Uruguay and Ecuador are neighbours in the standings, with the Tri-Colours sitting higher, which is surprising. Of course, the Sky Blue will try to beat them in the upcoming match by picking up three points. Yes, Oscar Tabares will not be able to count on a number of his leaders. Still, the Ecuadorians also have losses, with the Uruguayans showing more systematic and organised football that other players can integrate into. Moreover, the Ecuadorians have never won away in the history of this head-to-head encounter. Therefore, we should probably wager on Uruguay’s victory at around 1.73.

Uruguay and Ecuador have been rather productive in recent times. In the previous four head-to-head encounters, the opponents have scored 16 goals against each other (4.00 goals per game on average). It is a very high figure by the standards of South American football. Yes, the opponents are without several key players at the moment, but some represent the defensive group, which only increases the likelihood of goalscoring. With this in mind, we would say that Total Over 2.5 goals at odds close to 2.53 would be a good bet.

Giorgian de Arrascaeta is a midfielder who has spent his entire career in Brazil with some perfect statistics. For example, in 2019, while playing for Flamengo, he has registered 13 goals with 14 assists in 23 league games. As for the Uruguayan national team, he was unremarkable in terms of scoring. Now that the Bianconeros are without their main attacking stars, the 27-year-old midfielder is the leading scorer, scoring three goals in the previous two meetings. In such a situation, a bet on a Giorgian de Arrascaeta goal is worth a closer look at odds of around 3.50.