1. ‘Widgets’ will become the key to harnessing power of the mobile web.
All device vendors now see potential opportunities in offering widgets since these applications enable them to enhance the value of their devices and complement revenues from handset sales. It is becoming clear that, in developed markets, handset vendors can no longer rely on mobile phone sales to sustain growth. They will have to look at other opportunities, such as playing a role in enabling content creation and offering services through application stores, the internet, and ‘widgetization’.
2. Fixed broadband operators will experiment with new business models in a bid to end the “arms race” of increasing speeds and declining prices.
The recent history of broadband in mature markets has been characterized by a sort of broadband “arms race” of increasing speeds and declining prices. Operators must now face up to the need to grow revenues in saturated markets. The major effect of declining prices and increasing bandwidth has been the emergence of mass markets for the consumption of on-line video and music, which other players are now better placed to profit from.
3. North American pay TV revenues will peak in 2010.
Global pay TV subscription revenues will start to decline from 2012 as operators convert subscribers to triple-play bundles. North American revenues will peak in 2010 and Western Europe will do likewise in 2011.
4. Mobile operators will make small steps towards a de facto functional separation in order to position themselves to address the demand for 3rd party connected devices and applications.
Unless operators give full autonomy to wholesale units, we believe they will be too slow to succeed in shifting internal mindsets. We believe retail businesses need to be seen as just another customer of the network operations, albeit a so-called friend with privileges. Only in that way, do we think operators will be able to fully address the undeniable and sizeable opportunities that exist on a wholesale level.
5. Mobile LTE commercial launches will slip to 2013/2014 but LTE’s role as a provider of rural broadband connectivity will gain momentum.
2010 will be a year of further LTE trials and progress towards commercial services is likely to be slow. Informa expect only a handful of cautious early forays from the likes of Verizon and NTT DoCoMo towards the end of the year. Mobile LTE commercial launches in GSM-only markets will slip back to 2013-2014 as HSPA+ comes into the market.