Sussex vs Somerset Prediction: Both teams have an equal chance to move up to the playoff spot

Olakunle Emmanuel
20 Aug 2025
18:11

The Metro Bank One-Day Cup cricket competition is still ongoing, as Sussex and Derbyshire will face each other in Hove. In the standings, Sussex is currently in fourth place with two consecutive wins that have earned them six points. Somerset has played five matches, recording three wins and two losses. All actions will be at the prestigious The 1st Central County Ground, Hove, Brighton and Hove, United Kingdom. How will they approach this game, as both teams have a chance to achieve a positive result? Let’s get into the previews of this game and offer predictions.

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Sussex vs Somerset
Sussex vs Somerset
  • Match: Sussex vs Somerset
  • Date: Thursday, August 21st, 2025
  • Kick-Off Time: 13:00pm (AEST)
  • Stadium: The 1st Central County Ground

Teenage wicketkeeper-batter Charlie Tear is also one to watch closely. His breakout innings of 159 against Northamptonshire was a career-best performance. The knock showcased his aggressive stroke play and growing confidence at this level.

James Rew has spearheaded Somerset's batting. He is averaging just shy of 100 in this year's One Day Cup. He already has a century and two fifties under his belt. Furthermore, he is fresh from scoring 83 in his last innings. This makes him one of the standout batters in the competition. His younger brother Thomas has also impressed. He is averaging over 50 with two half-centuries to his name. 

The weather conditions around The 1st Central County Ground, Hove, Brighton and Hove, United Kingdom, are expected to include sunny intervals and a moderate breeze. The temperature, according to reports, is going to be between 13 and 20 degrees.

Sussex arrives at Hove in Brighton with a confident mood after recent success. They won back-to-back victories that have reignited their One Day Cup campaign. First, they secured a nail-biting one-wicket win over Lancashire. Then, they followed this with a commanding seven-wicket triumph away at Northamptonshire. These results have lifted Sussex into playoff stage contention. With momentum on their side and home advantage, the Sharks will fancy their chances. They face Somerset, who sit level with them on points in the table. 

Somerset has been one of the more consistent teams in the competition. Their batting lineup is full of talent. This has carried them to several impressive wins. However, their defeat to Warwickshire last time out has kept the group table tight. Victory here would restore their grip at the top of the standings. Another slip could leave qualification wide open.

Somerset's chance of winning - 57%

Sussex's chance of winning - 43%

Sussex is flying high after winning consecutive games. They started with a 1-wicket victory over Lancashire, then their solid chase against Northamptonshire. Their batting unit has shown maturity and resilience throughout this period. Charlie Tear played a stunning innings of 159 runs in their last match. He has become their backbone with consistent performances. Meanwhile, Tom Haines and Tom Clark provide stability at the top of the order.

Tom Haines has been in sparkling touch at the top of the order recently. He compiled scores of 90 and 76 in his last two outings. Fresh from strong performances for England Lions, he looks well placed for a big score. He appears ready to finally convert a big knock into three figures in this competition.

In the bowling department, Jack Carson has been the standout performer so far. His economical spells combine well with his wicket-taking ability. Alongside him, FJ Hudson and Bertie Foreman have been reliable in the middle overs. Meanwhile, Henry Crocombe adds useful pace variety to the attack.

The balance of batting firepower and disciplined bowling gives Sussex a slight edge. This combination should serve them well going into this important match.

With the ball, Danny Lamb has been a reliable source of wickets throughout. He has struck in four of Sussex's five matches so far this tournament. His ability to contribute in both disciplines makes him vital to their team balance.

Meanwhile, Henry Crocombe has found his rhythm after a quiet start to the campaign. He took seven wickets in his last three games. The seamer is beginning to replicate the form that made him Sussex's leading wicket-taker. His performances in last summer's competition set a high standard that he's now matching again.

Bertie ForemanAll-rounder
Tom HainesBatter
Josh SimpsonWicket Keeper
Tom ClarkBatter
Oliver CarterWicket Keeper
Charlie TearWicket Keeper
F. J. HudsonAll-rounder
Danny LambAll-rounder
Henry CrocombeCricket Bowler
LenhamCricket Bowler
Jack CarsonCricket Bowler

Somerset lost their previous match by 3 wickets. However, they have shown glimpses of their strong batting unit. Tom Lammonby scored a classy century (100). James Rew also contributed with a fluent 81. These performances showed their capability to post big totals. Thomas Rew and Alfie Ogbourne played supporting roles. Together, they ensured Somerset crossed the 300-run mark in their last outing.

Their bowling has been inconsistent, though. Alfie Ogbourne and Ben Green picked up wickets. Alfie Ogborne has emerged as a potent threat with the ball. He has claimed eight wickets in four games. This includes a five-wicket haul. His ability to make early inroads gives Somerset crucial momentum. Jake Ball also brings international experience. He has shown his wicket-taking ability with returns of 3/43 against Middlesex and 4/34 against Yorkshire. Though he went wicketless against Warwickshire, his experience makes him a key weapon in this contest.

Still, they couldn't prevent the opposition from chasing successfully. Tom Lammonby and James Langridge provide all-round options. However, Somerset will need sharper death bowling to challenge Sussex. If their bowlers can complement the batting unit, Somerset could turn their fortunes around in this clash. Both could play decisive roles in what promises to be a high-scoring clash.

James RewWicket Keeper
Thomas RewWicket Keeper
J LangridgeCricket Bowler
Lewis GoldsworthyAll-rounder
Joshua ThomasAll-rounder
Jake BallCricket Bowler
Josh DaveyAll-rounder
Alfie OgbourneCricket Bowler
Tom LammonbyBatter
Finlay HillAll-rounder
Archie VaughanAll-rounder

Considering the most recent 10 head-to-head meetings between Sussex and Somerset, both sides have shared the spoils. Their latest fixture, which took place in June, ended with Somerset winning by 166-169.

  • Total - 10
  • Sussex - 5
  • Somerset - 5

Using advanced computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Thursday's Sussex vs Somerset One-Day match 10,000 times.

Our leading predictive analytics model currently gives Somerset a 57% chance of beating Sussex in the Metro Bank One-Day Cup match of the 2025 season.

Sussex batters are making good scores in recent matches. Their bowlers are also in good rhythm from their last game. The batters have been complementing their bowling unit superbly throughout this period.

Meanwhile, Somerset batters made a big score in their previous match. However, they still ended up on the losing side despite their efforts. The strong middle-order featuring Josh Simpson and Danny Lamb is a huge boost for Sussex. This depth makes them capable of chasing or setting challenging totals. Both teams bring quality to this encounter. However, Sussex is expected to win this match for several reasons. Their home conditions should provide a significant advantage. Furthermore, their current momentum gives them extra confidence going into the contest.

Our prediction is a win for Sussex 

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