The rise of the connected smartphone and tablet has forever changed the way consumers and businesses consume data, which almost assures strong growth in network investment over at least the next five years.
Alcatel-Lucent president of Asia Pacific Rajeev Singh-Molares said continuing innovations in applications and uses of the network, coupled with low broadband penetration in many markets, the need to continue to upgrade and the move toward smart cities are all contributing to steady telco spend on capex.
"We crossed the chasm sometime in the last three years in terms what we do with connected devices. That change is irreversible and it's only going to continue and accelerate the data explosion," he told Telecom Asia.
While there is growing anxiety over the possibility of a double-dip recession in the US and that uncertainly will stop people from investing, "what I know with some conviction is that the drivers of the industry's growth -- the consumers and enterprises -- are not slowing down what they do with devices. Therefore, the traffic they generate will only continue to increase," he said.
He sees no slowdown over the next five or more years in the aggregate sense. In any specific market, after a big build, there could be a slowdown, he noted.
That sentiment is supported by recent results and projections. Steven Hartley, principal analyst at Ovum's telco strategy practice, said at a conference in Hong Kong earlier in the month that the five-year outlook for the industry is stable, unlike over the past few years. He says Asia will be the growth driver, accounting for 53% of telecom revenue by 2016, after a CAGR of 6.4% over the next five years.