Self-disruption, cryptocurrencies and bots, oh my!

Gartner analysts
Vision 2018

“CIOs in end-user organizations will need to develop a pace that can be sustained no matter what the future holds,” says Daryl Plummer, VP & Gartner Fellow. “Our predictions provide insight into that future.”

  1. Consumers favor visual and voice search
    By 2021, brands that redesign their websites to support visual and voice search will increase digital commerce revenue by 30%. This search type enables marketers gather more robust information about consumer habits, and early responders will see an increase in conversion rates, revenue and customer satisfaction.
  2. Digital giants self-disrupt
    By 2020, 5 of top 7 digital giants will willfully self-disrupt to create their next leadership opportunity. Digital giants such as Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google disrupted industries with previously unexplored options such as chatbots, and visual/voice search. But now it’s difficult to find new external areas to disrupt, so these enterprises will turn to self-disruption, e.g., potentially disrupting their own revenue bases to create new opportunities.
  3. Legitimized cryptocurrencies
    By the year 2020, the banking industry will derive US$1B of business value from the use of blockchain-based cryptocurrencies. With over 900 cryptocurrencies on the market, the banking endorsement could open doors to other industries.
  4. Increased “fake news”
    By 2022, the majority of individuals in mature economies will consume more false information than true information. Companies need to closely monitor what is being said about their brand and the context in which it is being said.
  5. Counterfeit reality overtakes reality
    By 2020, AI-driven creation of “counterfeit reality” will outpace AI’s ability to detect it, fomenting digital distrust. Counterfeit reality is digital media manipulated to portray events that never occurred or did not occur in the manner in which they are presented.
  6. Bots take over
    By 2021, more than 50% of enterprises will spend more on bots and chatbot creation than traditional mobile app development. In the “post-app era,” chatbots will become the face of AI and bots will transform the way apps are built.
  7. Versatility wins over specialization
    By 2021, 40% of IT staff will be “versatilists” holding multiple roles, most of which will be business- rather than technology-related. Specialists currently represent 42% of the entire IT workforce, but bimodal and digital business initiatives will require a complete transformation of skill sets.
  8. AI creates more jobs than it takes
    In 2020, AI will become a positive net job motivator, creating 2.3m jobs while only eliminating 1.8m jobs. Although AI will result in some job elimination, it will create millions of new positions ranging from highly skilled management to entry-level jobs.
  9. IoT in everything
    By 2020, IoT technology will be in 95% of electronics for new product designs - as it becomes increasingly possible to add IoT features to a product at minimal cost. Suppliers should begin to think about how to implement this technology.
  10. Assume IoT security vulnerabilities
    Through 2022, half of all security budgets for IoT will go to fault remediation, recalls and safety failures rather than protection. Due to challenges in determining security risks and exposure for IoT, current budgets for security spend is minimal. However, the scale of IoT into various markets will outpace support systems, resulting in a need for recalls for devices that cannot be patched.

This article first appeared in Telecom Asia Vision 2018

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