Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Tigers Prediction: A very tight ended battle

Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Tigers Prediction and Odds on the Match on September 19, 2025

Brisbane will reach the last Saturday in September with a win over Collingwood in what promises to be an epic clash between the 2023 Grand Finalists. The two recent AFL premiers will battle in a monumental Preliminary Final, with the winner advancing to the 2025 Grand Final for a rematch of last year's thrilling decider. The Lions stormed into the Preliminary Final with a dominant 53-point semi-final win over Gold Coast, bouncing back strongly after their Qualifying Final loss to Geelong. Below, I preview this game and offer predictions. 

Where to Watch Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Tigers

Collingwood Magpies: Form and Statistics

Collingwood dominated early in the season, holding a 14-2 record before losing five of their last seven, finishing at 16-7. However, they bounced back with a 24-point win over Adelaide to start the finals. Since their 64-point loss to Hawthorn in Round 22, their defense has tightened, conceding just 63 points on average in their last three games. Jamie Elliott kicked four goals against Adelaide and has scored 2+ in his last three, bringing his season total to 52. Jordan de Goey found form with 26 disposals, while Nick Daicos had 24 and has recorded 25+ in nine of his last 11 matches.

Collingwood Magpies: Team News and Lineup

Jeremy Howe, recovering from a groin injury, will be closely watched at training. Bobby Hill, despite missing recent games for personal reasons, is pushing for selection. Dan McStay was dropped for the Adelaide final in favor of Mason Cox.

Collingwood Magpies Team List

B: B.Frampton, D.Moore – C, B.Maynard

HB: H.Perryman, I.Quaynor, D.Houston

C: J.Daicos, J.DeGoey, N.Long

HF: S.Sidebottom, T.Membrey, P.Lipinski

F: J.Elliott, M.Cox, L.Schultz

FOLL: D.Cameron, S.Pendlebury, N.Daicos

I/C: J.Crisp, R.Steele, B.McCreery, B.Mihocek, J.Howe

EMG: W.Parker, D.McStay, W.Hoskin-Elliott

IN – J.Howe

OUT – W.Parker (omitted)

Brisbane Tigers: Form and Statistics

Brisbane bounced back last week against Gold Coast after a 38-point loss to Geelong in the first week of finals. Josh Dunkley was a standout, breaking the AFL finals record with 18 tackles, surpassing Geelong’s Jimmy Bartel. The Lions also ended a four-match losing streak, comfortably beating Collingwood. It was their fifth consecutive win at the MCG and their first over the Pies there since 2014. Logan Morris kicked a career-high six goals, while Lachie Neale (36 disposals, 12 clearances) and Dunkley (31, nine) dominated midfield. Heading into the finals, Brisbane won seven of their last nine matches, including victories over Fremantle and Hawthorn. They hold an 8-5 record against top-eight teams this season, despite the heavy loss to Geelong in the Qualifying Final. In the final rounds, the Lions ranked top-three for disposals, clearances, and inside 50s, leading in both counts against Geelong and Gold Coast. Their inside-50 differential improved from -13 against Geelong to +11 against the Suns. Finishing has been a slight concern, as they rank 13th for goals per inside 50. Against Gold Coast, they kicked 14.16, while against Hawthorn it was 11.23.

Brisbane Tigers: Team News and Lineup

Kai Lohmann and Zac Bailey each kicked three goals against Gold Coast, while Morris added two. Lohmann has kicked 2+ in his last four matches, and Morris has 17 in his past six. Cam Rayner, who kicked three against Geelong, has scored 2+ in five of his last seven. Hugh McCluggage bounced back with 33 disposals, while four others had 25+ disposals, including Will Ashcroft (eight of his last nine) and Dayne Zorko (four of his last five). No injuries came out of the win over Gold Coast, but key players Lachie Neale, Jack Payne, and Eric Hipwood are done for the season.

Brisbane Tigers Team List

B: D.Zorko, D.Gardiner, R.Lester

HB: D.Wilmot, H.Andrews – C, B.Starcevich

C: H.McCluggage, L.Ashcroft, J.Berry

HF: C.Cameron, T.Gallop, Z.Bailey

F: C.Rayner, L.Morris, C.Ah Chee

FOLL: D.Fort, J.Dunkley, W.Ashcroft

I/C: K.Lohmann, J.Fletcher, S.Marshall, B.Reville, O.McInerney

EMG: S.Day, J.Tunstill, D.Joyce

Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Tigers Head-Head Statistics

In the last five meetings between the Collingwood Magpies and Brisbane Tigers, the home side easily dominated with four wins. In the last win, it ended in a 65-92 score margin for Brisbane Tigers.

Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Tigers

• Brisbane won the Round 21 clash at the MCG by 27 points, with Logan Morris kicking six goals. The Lions have won five of their last six at the MCG. Kai Lohmann has scored 2+ goals in his past four matches.
• In their last meeting, Brisbane secured a 27-point win, with Morris shining and Lachie Neale, Hugh McCluggage, Will Ashcroft, and Josh Dunkley all recording 30+ disposals. For Collingwood, Nick and Josh Daicos had 29 disposals each.
• Collingwood won the Round 6 fixture at the Gabba and has claimed four of the last five encounters, including the 2023 Grand Final by four points and a one-point thriller at the MCG last season.
• Nick Daicos has averaged 30 disposals in his last five games against Brisbane, while McCluggage and Dunkley have averaged 25.

Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Tigers Match Prediction 19 September 2025

Given that both teams have recent Premiership experience, this semi-final is a true heavyweight matchup. Although Neale's absence restricts their control, Brisbane has shown they can win at the MCG and their midfield is still strong. In a close match, Collingwood should have the advantage thanks to their strong defense, De Goey's timing, and Daicos' sway. The Magpies' structure and ability to convert inside 50 will probably allow them to hold off the Lions by less than two goals, but expect momentum swings and a fierce battle for territory. However, Morris and Lohmann are expected to excel up front as Brisbane advances to their third straight Grand Final.

Our match prediction is Over 162.5 total points with odds at 1.91 on the 1Xbet bookmaker.

Our betting tip is Handicap Collingwood Magpies(- 6.5) at 1.95 odds on the Bet365 bookmaker.

Our final match prediction is Collingwood Magpies to win with odds at 1.68 on Betway.

How to Watch Geelong vs Hawthorn: Live Stream, Prediction, Where to Watch & Latest Betting Odds