Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions
Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne
27.09.2025, 07:30
Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions Prediction and Odds on the Match on September 27, 2025
The stage is set for the 2025 Toyota AFL Grand Final at the MCG. Geelong faces Brisbane in a clash of heavyweights. The Cats are chasing their second flag in four years, while the Lions want back-to-back glory as reigning premiers. A full house of more than 100,000 fans will pack into the stadium. Tickets vanished quickly, with demand far beyond supply. On the entertainment front, Snoop Dogg takes the spotlight as the headline act. Whether he brings surprise guests remains under wraps. Geelong and Brisbane are ready. The crowd is ready. This is the dream matchup. Check out our Geelong vs Brisbane prediction now!
Where to Watch Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions
| Country | Tv Channels/Stream |
| UK | TNT Sports, Sky Sports |
| US | Network Seven, Foxtel, Fox Sports |
| Canada | TSN |
| Africa | U-TV, DSTV |
| Australia | Fox Footy, Fox/Kayo |
Geelong Cats: Form and Statistics
Geelong won the Grand Final by 30 points over Hawthorn. The Hawks came out swinging, but the Cats stood their ground. In the second half, though, their class took over. Geelong is now going to its seventh Grand Final in 19 years. Three years ago, they won the cup and are now going after another one. Brisbane, the current champion, is waiting for them. Only three teams have been able to win back-to-back championships this century, and the Lions want to be one of them. This fight seems familiar. This is their fifth time in the finals in six years. They've played against each other three times before, including last season, and Geelong beat Brisbane in a qualifying final just three weeks ago.
Geelong Cats: Team News and Lineup
Patrick Dangerfield was the heart and soul of the Cats against Hawthorn. He was full of energy. Thirty-one disposals. Eight clearances. Three goals. His brilliance changed the course of the battle and led his side to victory. But the Cats have a problem. Tom Stewart, the vice-captain, is out because he got a concussion in the prelim. The AFL's 12-day rule means he can't play in the final. Jack Henry should be fine after his ankle scare, and Zach Guthrie will probably take Stewart's place.
Geelong Cats Team List
IN: Rhys Stanley
OUT: Tom Stewart (concussion)
B: C O’Sullivan, S De Koning, J Henry
HB: M O’Connor, Z Guthrie, L Humphries
C: G Miers, M Holmes, O Dempsey
HF: B Close, S Mannagh, T Stengle
F: S Neale, J Cameron, P Dangerfield (c)
FOLL: R Stanley, B Smith, T Atkins
INT: J Bowes, O Mullin, M Blicavs, J Martin, J Clark
EMER: M Knevitt, J Bews, O Henry
Brisbane Lions: Form and Statistics
Brisbane's path to the Grand Final has not been easy. The Lions beat Geelong four times in a row, two of them this season, before the Cats beat them in the qualifying final. But history gives us hope. Four of the last five teams this century that lost a qualifier and then faced the same team in the Grand Final went on to win the cup. The Lions are worried about injuries. Lachie Neale, who has won the Brownlow Medal twice, hurt his calf against Geelong, but he is now recovering very quickly. It is "extremely likely" that he will play. But Jarrod Berry's fate is the opposite. He dislocated his shoulder for the second time this month, so he still has a long way to go before Saturday.
Brisbane Lions: Team News and Lineup
Brisbane showed toughness against Collingwood. In the second quarter, the Magpies scored six goals in a row to beat them. But the Lions came back strong, scoring seven goals in the third to turn the game around. They won by 29 points and kept their dream of winning two in a row alive. Hugh McCluggage was the one who started it all. He controlled the middle of the field, getting 37 disposals and 10 clearances. He had a huge boost from his 14 touches in their last game against Collingwood. The Lions made it through because of his performance.
Brisbane Lions Team List
IN: Lachie Neale
OUT: Jarrod Berry (shoulder)
B: D Zorko, D Gardiner, R Lester
HB: D Wilmot, H Andrews (c), B Starcevich
C: H McCluggage, L Neale, L Ashcroft
HF: C Cameron, T Gallop, Z Bailey
F: C Rayner, L Morris, C Ah Chee
FOLL: D Fort, J Dunkley, W Ashcroft
INT: K Lohmann, J Fletcher, S Marshall, B Reville, O McInerney
EMER: S Day, J Tunstill, D Joyce
More AFL Predictions
Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions: Head-Head Statistics
Considering the last five meetings between Geelong Cats and Brisbane Lions, The Cats have been won thrice with two losses. Their meetings ended with Geelong Cats winning by 112-74 against Brisbane Lions.
Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions Betting Tips and Odds
- Brisbane’s numbers tell a story. They are unbeaten this season when winning contested ball and pressure, holding a flawless 12-0 record. But against Geelong in the qualifying final, that strength cracked. The Cats won the contested count 136-120, piled on 112 points, and outscored the Lions by 37 in time-on. The result was a heavy 38-point defeat.
- Clearances have been another weapon for Brisbane, ranked No.2 in both clearance and clearance differential. Yet Geelong exposed them, scoring 50 points from stoppages in that same clash.
- The Cats’ forward line is rolling. They’ve kicked more than 100 points in eight straight games. Against Brisbane three weeks ago, they produced 13 different goalkickers — the equal-most in a final on record.
- The Lions did win both home-and-away battles this year. But at the MCG, in the match that mattered most, Geelong delivered the knockout blow. That gives the Cats the mental edge heading into the decider.
Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions Match Prediction 27 September 2025
This Grand Final is a fight between geniuses. Chris Scott and Chris Fagan are good friends, and tactics will play a big role in the outcome. Scott has choices. He will probably throw taggers at Hugh McCluggage and Cam Rayner to keep them from having too much of an effect. Fagan also has weapons. You could use Josh Dunkley as a defensive stopper on either Bailey Smith or Max Holmes. Dunkley and Geelong's Tom Atkins are both among the league's best tacklers this season, which will make for a tough battle in the middle. History adds some flavor. Geelong beat Brisbane in the qualifying final just a few weeks ago, bringing their winning streak to eight games. The Lions won both games in the regular season, though. The stakes are higher now. Chris Scott is leading the Cats in their hunt for a third premiership. The Lions are in the finals for the third time in a row and hope to win again, just like they did in the early 2000s. Still, Brisbane refuses to stay down. Every time they stumble, they find a way back. They’ve shown resilience and belief at the MCG before. Yet now comes the ultimate challenge — Geelong in full flight. This might be the toughest test of all.
Our match prediction is Over 174.5 total points with odds at 1.91 on the 1Xbet bookmaker.
Our betting tip is Handicap Geelong Cats (- 9.5) at 1.91 odds on the Bet365 bookmaker.
Our final match prediction is Geelong Cats to win with odds at 1.60 on Betway.
Other predictions
