Milan vs Monaco Prediction: the Italians Aren’t the Best Choice

Milan has lost to Monaco at home twice as often as they've won. The data is pretty bad right now. There are a lot of injuries, and no fresh thoughts, which the opponent is definitely taking advantage of.

Milan

The hosts have won eight times at home and lost five. On average, they score 87.5 points per game at home and allow their opponents to score five points less.

Some bookies are offering odds above 1.8 on Milan's individual total of just over 84.5. Statistically speaking, these odds look good.

Monaco

The Monegasques had a positive balance in away games under Obradovic, and they keep it under Spanoulis. Since the Greek took over, they've won four away games and lost only three. They beat Virtus and Alba, but they also beat Pao and Fener.

Monaco has scored 83.5 points on the road and conceded 80. Milan has scored those 80 points many times, and even more, but only away. But they've never managed to score that many at home. In two of the last three home games, the Italians didn't even score 70.

And after Mirotic's return, Messina benched LeDay, who's been super productive. Zach still plays a lot, but he's not getting as many rebounds as before, probably because he's not getting as many assists. Just recall the game against Zalgiris, for example. The forward only scored 13 points from the free throw line, but only 26 points. In the Italian Cup final, LeDay only made two free throws, and Mirotic took over. The result was 63 team points and an embarrassing loss. The bottom line: the Montenegrin is likely to score a lot, but his team is unlikely to score a lot.

Stats betting

Even in the first round, Milan lost to the Monegasques in terms of assists, even though Calathes wasn't playing. Now that Bolmaro is injured and Calathes is playing, Milan has a slim chance of beating the visitors in this respect.

Expert Betting Tips

Bookies think Milan is the team to beat. We’re not so sure about that. And besides, we think Messina's "give-the-ball-to-Mirotic-and-more-nobody" tactic is too easy for Monaco-level opponents. And even Trento, as it turns out. We don't think the hosts will reach the total over with this approach.

Our picks:

IT1U (85.5) for 1.87 

Each to Score Over 85.5 for 2.61 

TU (168.5) for 1.83