Hamburg SV vs FC St. Pauli Prediction: A derby with high stakes for both teams is brewing

Hamburg SV vs FC St. Pauli Prediction and Odds on 29 August 2025

The first derby of the 2025/2026 Bundesliga season will be the Hamburg derby, which is one of German football’s most potent rivalries. Hamburg will seek to reaffirm and justify their status as a Bundesliga team and forget previous second-tier days. St. Pauli is a club famed for its working-class identity but will go into this game as the team's second-ever Bundesliga season in recent memory. 

This derby will be a clash of legacies, with each side striving for dominance not just on the pitch but throughout Hamburg’s cultural narrative.

Hamburg SV: Forms and Statistics

After gaining promotion to the Bundesliga by finishing second in the 2. Bundesliga, Hamburg is making their summer reinforcements count. Hamburg has added key players such as Jordan Torunarigha, Nicolás Capaldo, Rayan Philippe, Yussuf Poulsen, and loaned keeper Daniel Peretz to boost the squad depth and experience. The addition of Peretz from Bayern gives Hamburg options in the goalkeeping department and underlines their intent to stabilize defensively.

Hamburg SV - Lineups

🔖 Hamburg SV Predicted Lineup (3-4-3)

Fernandes; Omari, Elfadli, Torunarigha; Gocholeishvili, Remberg, Capaldo, Muheim; Sahiti, Konigsdorffer, Dompe

⛔️ Unavailable: Immanuel Pherai, Bakery Jatta, David Nemeth

👤 Head Coach: Merlin Polzin

FC St. Pauli: Forms and Statistics

St. Pauli is not a newcomer to the Bundesliga this season, as this is the third consecutive season for the club. St. Pauli will need to build on their previous survival. St Pauli's campaign last season concluded with the club ending the season in 16th-place, which is an improvement on their 2023–24 output. Passion and squad cohesion are one of the key components for the team.

FC St. Pauli - Lineups

🔖 FC St. Pauli Predicted Lineup (3-4-1-2)

Vasilj; Wahl, Smith, Dzwigala; Saliakis, Sands, Fujita, Oppie; Sinani; Hountondji, Lage

⛔️ Unavailable: None reported

👤 Head Coach: Alexander Blessin

Hamburg SV vs FC St. Pauli: head to head statistics

A review of the historical data shows that Hamburg has dominated the derby, but St. Pauli’s rise has blurred territorial lines recently by winning the derby and cooling Hamburg's dominance. Hamburg has long held the H2H dominance, with 69 wins in over 109 derby fixtures compared to St. Pauli’s 24. This encounter will be their first top-flight clash in over a decade, which adds historical weight to the fixture.

Hamburg SV vs FC St. Pauli: Betting Tips & Odds

• In 5 of the last 6 games between Hamburg and St Pauli, bet on over 2.5 goals has played. The bet is offered on the Betway bookmaker website for odds of 1.93 odds;
• In 4 of the last 5 games between Hamburg and St Pauli, bet on under 4.5 cards has played. The bet is offered on the Bet365 bookmaker website for odds of 1.27 odds;
• In 6 of the last 7 games between Hamburg and St Pauli, bet on under 10.5 corners has played. The bet is offered on the Betway bookmaker website for odds of 1.34 odds;

Hamburg SV vs FC St. Pauli match prediction 29 August 2025

Derbies are never easily predictable, but we see Hamburg winning this one as Hamburg has improved the team with quality players who will be very instrumental. One might argue that it will take time for the team to gel, but derbies like this are what players aim for. We anticipate a high-energy, closely fought, where discipline and home backing may swing the result.

Below are our predictions

Our match prediction: is BTTS for a coefficient of 1.73 in the Betway bookmaker.

Our betting tip on the match: is over 2.5 goals for a coefficient of 1.93 in the Bet365 bookmaker.

Lastly: is W1 to win for a coefficient of 2.43 in the 1XBet bookmaker.