Formula 1 Italian Grand Prix Prediction: 75th appearance of Formula 1 in Monza

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07 Sep 2025 16:00
Motorsport. Formula 1. September 07, 2025
Italian Grand Prix. Season 2025.
Circuit: Autodromo Nazionale Monza

Zlatko Ilijevski
07 Sep 2025
01:27
All time statistics:
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545
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44.22%
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Odds 2,4
Bet Type Lando Norris to win
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Formula 1 Italian Grand Prix Prediction, Betting Tips & Odds │07 September 2025

The Formula 1 World Championship season has reached its 16th stop, the Italian Grand Prix at the legendary ‘Temple of Speed’ in Monza. No other track in the world can boast as many Formula 1 races as the Autodromo Nazionale Monza. Throughout the history of the World Championship, 75 Italian Grand Prix have been held to date, of which 74 have been held in Monza and only one in Imola. Therefore, Monza will celebrate a significant anniversary this weekend, marking its 75th Formula 1 race, and thus continue to lead the list of tracks with the most Grand Prix races, ahead of Monte Carlo and Silverstone. In the rich history of F1 racing at Monza, two names stand out with their results. The same drivers who have left the deepest mark on the history of the sport in general – Michael Schumacher and Lewis Hamilton. Each of them has won the Italian Grand Prix five times, each has eight podiums, and the Briton is only more successful in terms of the number of best starting positions. He has seven, and the German three.

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Although Ferrari is always in the foreground at Monza, the public's attention will certainly be largely focused on the McLaren drivers and the fight for the championship title. Lando Norris suffered a major setback in the Netherlands and had to retire due to a technical failure, and Oscar Piastri's victory took him to a huge 34-point lead. Perhaps Zandvoort will prove decisive in that fight, time will tell, but with nine races to go, Norris still has enough opportunities to turn the tide in his favor. The Australian achieved his first Grand Slam at Zandvoort. He won pole position, led the entire race, won, and set the fastest lap of the race. He thus ended McLaren's 27-year wait for such a weekend. With a significant points advantage, Oscar can now 'breathe a little easier', although he certainly knows very well that he must not relax.

We watched the tense qualifying at the Italian Grand Prix. In Monza, the fastest drivers in the world raced to get into the best possible position for Sunday's start. The favorites were McLaren, but the current Formula 1 champion, Max Verstappen, intervened. The Dutchman did a great qualifying and took the "pole" less than a tenth of a second ahead of Lando Norris. Oscar Piastri will be on the second row, and Charles Leclerc will be standing next to him. The last round was interesting. Several drivers fought for first place, and in the end, Max Verstappen was the fastest. The first behind him was Norris, while the current leader in the overall standings, Oscar Piastri, stayed in third place. Charles Leclerc was fourth, Lewis Hamilton fifth (but will start from 10th place), George Russell sixth, Andrea Kimi Antonelli seventh, Gabriel Bortoleto eighth, Fernando Alonso ninth, while the last in Q3 was Yuki Tsunoda.

George Russell revealed after qualifying at Monza that there had been a “misunderstanding” with Mercedes that meant he was not running on the tyres he wanted to use in the decisive part. During Q3, the British driver was on soft tires, but he made it clear over the team radio: “I wanted mediums”, after asking, “We have softs, is that correct?”. Earlier in Q1, Russell had been fastest on the medium compound, and Mercedes was one of the few teams to spare two new sets of those tires. The driver felt far more comfortable on them than on the softs.

Pirelli has not changed the tyre selection this year, so drivers will once again have the C3 compound as the harder option, the C4 as the medium, and the C5 as the softer compound at their disposal. It is expected that C4 and C5 will be used mainly during the race, and that most drivers will aim for a one-stop strategy in the pits. Unlike last weekend in the Netherlands, the weather conditions in Italy should be very favorable. Mostly sunny weather is expected during the weekend, with the highest daily temperatures around 25 degrees Celsius. It will be very tough race, Verstappen is fast, Leclerc is fast, but I'm certain that once again McLaren will dominate and the true race will be between Lando and Piastri.

OUR PREDICTION: Lando Norris to win

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