Formula 1 USA Grand Prix Prediction: Lando's chance to throw Max out of all calculations

There are three races left in the 2025 Formula 1 World Championship season, and three drivers are still in the running for the championship. One thing is certain: the Las Vegas Grand Prix will not settle the question of the champion, but it could reduce the number of candidates from three to two. Lando Norris put himself in a winning position with a brilliant weekend at the Sao Paulo Grand Prix two weeks ago. Although he refused to admit after his seventh victory of the season that the Brazilian weekend could prove decisive in the fight for the championship, the math is very clear. The Briton scored a maximum of 33 points at Interlagos and escaped his teammate Oscar Piastri by a significant 24 points.

USA GP - Las Vegas

Formula 1 is coming to a city that doesn't recognize silence. Las Vegas is a night race under neon lights, where Lando Norris defends the points lead, Oscar Piastri is chasing a perfect weekend, and Mercedes comes with the memory of last year's 1–2 and the idea of pushing ahead of everyone else again. The Las Vegas Grand Prix is a specific race on the calendar, and it is difficult to predict the winner. This will be the third race this season on the territory of the United States of America and the third in history on the Las Vegas Strip track, which has been won so far by Verstappen in 2023 and Russell in 2024.

Norris wins first starting position in rain-soaked qualifying in Las Vegas!

Contrary to expectations, the rain still soaked the track quite a bit ahead of qualifying for the Las Vegas Grand Prix. Only the final session was driven on intermediate tires. The laps were intense, and there were not many pit stops between runs. The fastest was McLaren's Lando Norris ahead of Red Bull's Max Verstappen and Williams' Carlos Sainz. Qualifying in Vegas was challenging for everyone due to the wet and unpredictable track, but Norris found enough pace and confidence to stay ahead of Verstappen at the start. However, he is aware that the start of the race, and especially the first corner, will not be easy. Verstappen is known as a driver who often enters the first corners extremely aggressively, taking risks that others avoid. According to Norris, this is not a threat — but a challenge that he accepts. Speaking about what he expects in the first round, Norris stressed that he will not play it safe. He made it clear that he will not give in just because he is fighting for the title or because Verstappen is standing next to him at the start. Alongside Verstappen, Norris expects Carlos Sainz to join the fight at the top, especially if he finds some good pace in the early laps. But heading into race night, Norris is in the best possible starting position: pole position, confidence, and momentum. While Verstappen must fight to stay in the title race, Norris has the chance to make a crucial move — but he knows that nothing will be decided without a fight. And that fight starts right away: from the moment the lights go out and everyone heads for the first corner.

Russell: Fourth place isn't ideal, but we can fight

Last year's Las Vegas Grand Prix winner will struggle to repeat that success, having qualified fourth. George Russell had a great time in Las Vegas a year ago. He took pole position and won the race ahead of teammate Lewis Hamilton. This time he will have a less favourable starting position. After being fastest in the third free practice session and also having the fastest laps in the first and second qualifying rounds, Russell finished fourth in Q3. He was not particularly happy with that, and he also discovered some problems with the Mercedes car.

Hamilton: I thought it would be a great day, but it turned out to be the worst

The seven-time world champion suffered another huge disappointment in what he says is the most difficult year of his F1 career. Lewis Hamilton made his Formula One debut in 2007, and towards the end of his 19th season in the sport, he finished last in qualifying for the first time. He finished 20th in qualifying for the Las Vegas Grand Prix, the first time he was the slowest driver on track in a qualifying situation where he had a set time. Another infamous statistic – this is the first time Ferrari has finished last in qualifying since the 2009 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, when Giancarlo Fisichella finished last.

Expert Betting Tips

The race lasts 50 laps on a 6.2-kilometer track with 17 turns. How fast the track is can best be described by two facts: last year in Las Vegas, Alex Albon recorded the highest maximum speed of a Formula 1 car of 368 km/h, and almost 80 percent of the circuit is driven at full throttle. There are two DRS zones, and there is room for overtaking. The best opportunity is offered by the long straight after the gentle turn number 13, i.e., hard braking for turn number 14. It should be said about the track that the grip is very bad, although the grip situation is regularly improving as the weekend progresses, and the loads on the tires are quite high. A year ago, the degradation of Pirelli's medium-hard tires was quite pronounced. Maybe Piastri is a little bit forgotten in the story for the title since Verstappen joined the race, but even though he wasn't very impressive in the qualifications, he will start from 5th position. I believe he can reach the podium in Las Vegas.

OUR PREDICTION: Oscar Piastri in top 3