Palmeiras vs São Paulo Prediction: Who will win the derby?

Palmeiras vs São Paulo: Prediction and odds on the Brasileirão match on May 11, 2025

Palmeiras and São Paulo will meet at the Arena Barueri for the most anticipated match of Round 8. Palmeiras leads the Brasileirão, but curiously, São Paulo is the only unbeaten team in the competition. Both teams are confident after winning away in the Copa Libertadores a few days ago.

Palmeiras: Form and statistics

Palmeiras reacted well to the home defeat against Bahia in Round 6 by winning the following three games. Since then, Verdão has beaten Ceará in the Copa do Brasil, Vasco in the league, and Cerro Porteño in the Copa Libertadores. All these victories were achieved away from home, demonstrating the Paulistas' strength. The 1-0 win against Vasco in Brasilia was important as Palmeiras regained first place, and Vitor Roque scored his first goal for the club. In midweek, Abel Ferreira's men beat Cerro Porteño in Paraguay and secured qualification for the knockout stage. Estêvão scored a wonderful long-range goal, and Vitor Roque scored again, despite missing an easy goal in the first half. Palmeiras is full of confidence for the derby against São Paulo.

Palmeiras: Lineup

Palmeiras' medical department could soon be empty as Bruno Rodrigues and Micael are in the final stages of recovery. Raphael Veiga has recovered from the injury that prevented him from playing in recent weeks, but his presence in the starting eleven is not guaranteed.

🔖Palmeiras starting lineup (4-3-3)

Weverton – Giay, Murilo, Gómez, Piquerez – Anderson, Ríos, Evangelista – Estêvão, Vitor Roque, Torres 

⛔️Out: Micael, Bruno Rodrigues (injured)

👤Head Coach: Abel Ferreira

Palmeiras Latest Games

Palmeiras

04.12.25

Atletico MG

0 - 3

Palmeiras

30.11.25

Palmeiras

0 - 1

Flamengo

26.11.25

Gremio

3 - 2

Palmeiras

23.11.25

Palmeiras

0 - 0

Fluminense

20.11.25

Palmeiras

0 - 0

Vitoria

16.11.25

Santos FC

1 - 0

Palmeiras

10.11.25

Mirassol

2 - 1

Palmeiras

07.11.25

Palmeiras

2 - 0

Santos FC

03.11.25

Juventude

0 - 2

Palmeiras

31.10.25

Palmeiras

4 - 0

LDU de Quito

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Sao Paulo Latest Games

Sao Paulo

04.12.25

Sao Paulo

3 - 0

Internacional

28.11.25

Fluminense

6 - 0

Sao Paulo

23.11.25

Sao Paulo

2 - 1

Juventude

21.11.25

Corinthians

3 - 1

Sao Paulo

09.11.25

Sao Paulo

0 - 1

Red Bull Bragantino

06.11.25

Sao Paulo

2 - 2

Flamengo

03.11.25

Vasco da Gama

0 - 2

Sao Paulo

26.10.25

Sao Paulo

2 - 0

Bahia

20.10.25

Mirassol

3 - 0

Sao Paulo

17.10.25

Gremio

2 - 0

Sao Paulo

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São Paulo: Form and statistics

The Tricolor hasn't lost in 12 games in all competitions, and curiously, the last defeat was against Palmeiras in the Campeonato Paulista semi-finals. Despite not playing eye-catching football, Luis Zubeldía's team is organized and consistent. In the previous Brasileirão round, the Paulistas drew 0-0 at home to Fortaleza but could have won if Ferreirinha hadn't missed a penalty. São Paulo is in 11th place with one win and six draws, being the only unbeaten team in the league. In midweek, São Paulo traveled to Peru and beat Alianza Lima 2-0 with goals from André Silva. São Paulo leads the Copa Libertadores Group D and only needs one point to qualify for the next stage.

São Paulo: Lineup

Enzo Díaz and Marcos Antônio have served their one-match ban and are available. Oscar has returned to training and could be on the bench.

🔖São Paulo starting lineup (4-2-3-1)

Rafael – Ferraresi, Arboleda, Alan Franco, Enzo Díaz – Alisson, Marcos Antônio – Cédric, Matheus Alves, Ferreirinha – André Silva

⛔️Out: Calleri, Luiz Gustavo, Igor Vinicius (injured)

👤Head Coach: Luis Zubeldía

Palmeiras vs São Paulo: Head-to-head statistics

The Choque-Rei is one of the oldest derbies in Brazil. Palmeiras and São Paulo have met 322 times, with the Tricolor having a slight advantage. São Paulo has won 110 games, Palmeiras 108, and on 104 occasions the meetings have ended in a draw. São Paulo's last defeat this season was against Palmeiras in the Campeonato Paulista. In that game, Palmeiras won with a penalty from Raphael Veiga.

History of Head-to-Heads

Serie A 2025

05.10.25

Sao Paulo

2 - 3

Palmeiras

Serie A 2025

11.05.25

Palmeiras

1 - 0

Sao Paulo

Paulista A1 Playoff 2025

11.03.25

Palmeiras

1 - 0

Sao Paulo

Paulista A1 2025

17.02.25

Palmeiras

0 - 0

Sao Paulo

Serie A 2024

18.08.24

Palmeiras

2 - 1

Sao Paulo

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Palmeiras vs São Paulo: Betting tips & Odds

• The TU 2.5 bet has won in five of the last six games between the two rivals. You can bet on a game with less than three goals for 1.50 at Betway;
• Palmeiras was the first team to score in 10 of its last 11 games. You can place this bet for 1.44 at Bet365;
• Palmeiras hasn't lost any of its last seven games against São Paulo. You can bet on a Double Chance in favor of Palmeiras for 1.14 at Bet365.

1X2 DC Handicap O/U BTTS CS O/E HT/FT

Main Time (3) 1st Half (3) 2nd Half (2)

	W1	X	W2
	1.78	3.32	5.30
	1.76	3.20	5.00
	1.79	3.30	5.20

Palmeiras vs São Paulo match prediction 11 May 2025

It's an old derby, and anything can happen, although Palmeiras has more talented players. The Verdão leads the Brasileirão while São Paulo is in mid-table, but the truth is that despite the modest standings, Zubeldía's team is the only one unbeaten in the competition. São Paulo is a resilient team, very organized, and tough to beat. Someday São Paulo will have to lose, and why not against Palmeiras?

Our match prediction: Palmeiras to win for 1.7 at 1xBet.

Our betting tip for this Brasileirão match: Estêvão to score at any time for 3.6 at Bet365.

Our final betting tip on the match: Correct Score 2-0 for 6.50 at Betway.