São Paulo vs Palmeiras Prediction: Who will win the Choque-Rei?

São Paulo vs Palmeiras: Prediction and odds on the Brasileirão match on October 05, 2025

São Paulo and Palmeiras will clash in one of Brazil's most intense derbies. Palmeiras is second, three points behind the leader Flamengo, so only a victory matters for Abel Ferreira's team.

São Paulo: Form and statistics

São Paulo broke a streak of four consecutive defeats, two of them in the Copa Libertadores, beating Fortaleza 2-0 away. The Paulistas started well and opened the scoring in the 11th minute through Tapia after an assist from Rodriguinho, a 21-year-old attacking midfielder who has stood out this season in the Brasileirão. However, 11 minutes later, Rigoni received a red card after a hard tackle on Deyverson, leaving São Paulo with 10 players. From then on, Fortaleza controlled possession but didn't create any dangerous chances in the first half. The Cearenses tried to equalize in the second half but failed to finish, showing great anxiety. In the 85th minute, São Paulo launched a deadly counterattack, and Luciano made it 2-0 to seal the result. Crespo's men secured a crucial victory that gives them confidence ahead of the derby.

São Paulo: Lineup

Rigoni is suspended after being sent off against Fortaleza.

🔖São Paulo starting lineup (3-5-2)

Rafael – Arboleda, Alan Franco, Sabino – Cédric, Bobadilla, Pablo Maia, Rodriguinho, Enzo Díaz – Luciano, Ferreira

⛔️Out: Tolói, Ferraresi, André Silva, Luan, Lucas Moura, Ryan Francisco, Calleri (injured), Rigoni (suspended)

👤Head Coach: Hernán Crespo

Palmeiras: Form and statistics

In the last round, Palmeiras had no trouble defeating Vasco da Gama 3-0 at home. The Verdão had to win after losing to Bahia in Salvador. The round was very positive for Palmeiras, as Flamengo and Cruzeiro played each other and tied 0-0 at the Maracanã. Palmeiras moved up to second place with 52 points and is now three points behind the leader. The Verdão still has a game in hand against Santos away, so the three-point gap to Flamengo can be closed. The game against Vasco was quickly decided in the first half. By the 24th minute, Palmeiras was already winning 3-0 with two goals from Flaco López and one from Vitor Roque. This attacking duo has been showing excellent chemistry, and both players are a permanent threat to their opponents. São Paulo will only have a chance to win the derby if they can neutralize Palmeiras' two strikers, who are on fire.

Palmeiras: Lineup

Abel Ferreira may repeat the lineup and field the same players who beat Vasco da Gama.

🔖Palmeiras starting lineup (4-4-2)

Weverton – Giay, Gómez, Murilo, Piquerez – Moreno, Andreas Pereira, Raphael Veiga, Felipe Anderson – Flaco López, Vitor Roque

⛔️Out: Khellven, Lucas Evangelista, Figueiredo, Paulinho (injured)

👤Head Coach: Abel Ferreira

São Paulo vs Palmeiras: Head-to-head statistics

The head-to-head record between the two clubs is fairly even. São Paulo won 110 games, while Palmeiras won 109. On 104 occasions, the matches ended in a draw. This season, the two rivals have met three times at Palmeiras' stadium, twice in the Campeonato Paulista and once in the league. Palmeiras won two games 1-0, and the other ended in a 0-0 draw. São Paulo has not beaten Palmeiras in eight matches.

São Paulo vs Palmeiras: Betting tips & Odds

• São Paulo conceded first in four of its last five matches. You can bet that Palmeiras will be the first team to score for 1.83 at Bet365;
• São Paulo has not defeated Palmeiras in the last eight meetings. You can bet that Palmeiras won't lose (X2) for 1.33 at Betway;
• The TU 2.5 bet has won 12 times in São Paulo's last 13 matches. You can bet on a game with a maximum of two goals scored (TU 2.5) for 1.47 at Betway.

São Paulo vs Palmeiras match prediction 05 October 2025

The Choque-Rei is the most anticipated game of Round 27 and is very important for both teams, especially for Palmeiras, which is in the title race. São Paulo is in seventh place and also needs points to reach the qualifying spots for the Copa Libertadores. Palmeiras is going through a good spell despite losing to Bahia in its last away match. I'm going to bet on a Double Chance in favor of Palmeiras with a maximum of two goals scored.

Our match prediction: X2 & TU 2.5 for 1.90 at Betway.

Our betting tip for this Brasileirão match: BTTS - No for 1.64 at 1xBet.

Our final tip for this match: Correct Score 0-1 for 6.00 at Bet365.