São Paulo vs Vitória Prediction: São Paulo has never lost at home against Vitória

São Paulo vs Vitória: Prediction and odds on the Brasileirão match on August 10, 2025

The Paulistas were unexpectedly eliminated from the Copa do Brasil by a Série B team. The defeat against Athletico Paranaense ended a streak of five consecutive victories, four of them in the league.

São Paulo: Form and statistics

The defeat to Athletico in the Copa do Brasil has an obvious mitigating factor. Rafael, São Paulo's goalkeeper, was sent off in the 4th minute, leaving his team with ten players for practically the entire game. São Paulo had won the first leg 2-1 but could not avoid a 1-0 defeat at the Arena da Baixada. In the penalty shootout, the Hurricane won and eliminated a Série A team that was building momentum. A few days earlier, the Tricolor had secured an important away win over Internacional. São Paulo opened the scoring with their first real chance. Central defender Arboleda headed home from a corner kick in the 43rd minute. The goal came at a key moment and put the Gaúchos under pressure. Roger Machado, who had left some of Inter's starters on the bench with an eye on the cup game against Fluminense, made changes in the second half, and the team improved. Carbonero's speed began to cause problems for the Paulistas, but in Inter's best spell, Bobadilla made it 2-0, also from a corner. Internacional's defense failed to clear the ball, and the midfielder curled in a beautiful goal. Tabata reduced the deficit to 2-1 in the 89th minute from the penalty spot, but it was too late. With the victory, São Paulo moved up to eighth place with 25 points. Elimination from the Copa do Brasil was not part of the plan, and now Crespo has to convince his players to forget the defeat in Curitiba.

São Paulo: Lineup

Center back Alan Franco and winger Ferreirinha are back after being suspended. Central defender Arboleda picked up an injury, and there are doubts about whether the 3-5-2 system will be maintained. Crespo may eventually use a more offensive formation with the inclusion of Ferreirinha. Winger Lucas Moura is back in training.

🔖São Paulo starting lineup (4-3-3)

Rafael – Cédric, Ferraresi, Sabino, Patryck – Alisson, Marcos Antônio, Rodriguinho – Luciano, André Silva, Ferreirinha

⛔️Out: Arboleda, Wendell, Ryan Francisco, Oscar, Calleri, Luiz Gustavo (injured)

👤Head Coach: Hernán Crespo

Vitória: Form and statistics

The Barra's Lion tied 2-2 at home with Palmeiras in a great football game. The contest was not expected to be easy for Palmeiras, and that proved to be the case. The Baianos were motivated by their four-match unbeaten streak and came in determined to win. Palmeiras had an early chance to score in the 3rd minute, but Lucas Arcanjo was alert. Vitória settled into its game and blocked the paths to its goal. On a counterattack, Renato Kayzer opened the scoring for the home team in the 34th minute. In the first twenty minutes of the second half, Palmeiras was practically harmless, which led Abel Ferreira to substitute four players at once to shake up the game. However, a minute later, Vitória made it 2-0 with a goal from Erick that was a true work of art. The Barradão celebrated the likely victory, but the joy did not last. In the 70th minute, Piquerez reduced the deficit to 2-1 with a controversial penalty, and from then on, the game changed. In the 86th minute, Flaco López equalized with a header and sealed the result. Vitória put in an excellent performance and showed signs that it can avoid relegation. Fábio Carille's team is in 16th place with 18 points, one place above the relegation zone.

Vitória: Lineup

Erick can’t play because he is on loan from São Paulo. Cáceres is suspended.

🔖Vitória starting lineup (4-3-3)

Lucas Arcanjo – Claudinho, Lucas Halter, Zé Marcos, Maykon Jesus – Baralhas, Pepê, Ronald – Fabri, Renato Kayzer, Osvaldo

⛔️Out: Jamerson, Matheuzinho (injured), Cáceres (suspended), Erick (contract)

👤Head Coach: Fábio Carille

São Paulo vs Vitória: Head-to-head statistics

São Paulo holds a massive advantage in the 47 meetings with Vitória. The Paulistas won 32 games, while the Baianos won 9. The remaining six games ended in draws. Vitória has never beaten São Paulo away from home.

São Paulo vs Vitória: Betting tips & Odds

• São Paulo scored first in six of its last seven matches. You can bet that São Paulo will be the first team to score for 1.53 at Bet365;
• São Paulo has never lost at home against Vitória. You can bet that São Paulo won’t lose for 1.14 at Betway;
• The TO 1.5 bet has won 13 times in São Paulo’s last 15 matches. You can bet on a game with at least two goals scored (TO 1.5) for 1.56 at 1xBet.

São Paulo vs Vitória match prediction 10 August 2025

Both teams have been improving since changing coaches, so the match should be interesting. Vitória has never won away against São Paulo, which is a relevant fact. The Paulistas have a big game a few days later in Colombia for the Copa Libertadores and may play at a lower tempo. I'm going to bet on both teams to score.

Our match prediction: BTTS - Yes for 2.47 at 1xBet.

Our betting tip for this Brasileirão match: São Paulo to win for 1.61 at Betway.

Our final tip for this match: Correct Score 2-1 for 9.5 at Bet365.