São Paulo vs LDU Quito Prediction: Tricolor aim to overturn deficit in Copa Libertadores quarterfinal return leg

São Paulo vs LDU Quito: Prediction and odds on the Match on 26 September 2025

São Paulo hosts LDU Quito at the iconic Morumbi in the decisive second leg of the Copa Libertadores 2025 quarterfinal, trailing 2-0 from the first leg in Quito, where Bryan Ramírez and Michael Estrada scored for LDU, ending São Paulo’s 9-match unbeaten streak in the competition. São Paulo, sitting 7th with 35 points, is coming off a 1-0 defeat to Santos and aiming to make a comeback victory at Morumbi. 

LDU Quito, on the other hand, finished top of Group C with only a single loss from the six group games played. They remain third placed in the Ecuadorian league, and in the right place for a Copa Libertadores qualification next season. LDU Quito finally suffered their first home defeat of the season last week against Universidad Catolica, but what is important for Albos is a semifinal qualification to the Copa Libertadores, and they will protect their lead with their lives. Historically, it's always a tough fight whenever these teams meet, and we are led to expect a very tough encounter here. Check the team conditions! Several betting options are available.

São Paulo: form and statistics

Form in all competitions: WLWLW

The Tricolor Paulista didn't deserve the bad ending they got at Estadio Rodrigo Paz in the first leg against LDU Quito. The game didn't exactly go as planned after they conceded goals in both halves. The Tricolor Paulista conceded an early goal in the 15th minute, before Michael Estrada doubled their lead in the 79th. The Tricolor Paulista had the most possession in that game, but they were not clinical enough in front of goal. They enter this return leg fixture on the back of a narrow defeat to Santos in the Brasileirao, making it two consecutive defeats for São Paulo. Their main focus remains on the return leg fixture. 

São Paulo remains a formidable force, winning six of their last eight games on home soil. Currently sitting seventh with 35 points, they are four points above eighth-placed Fluminense, while trailing sixth-placed Bahia by two points. 

The bigger focus now shifts to securing Copa Libertadores football for next season. For a club with São Paulo’s history, that’s non-negotiable. And with a massive quarter-final return leg clash against LDU Quito looming around the corner, the Tricolor Paulista know they have to sharpen up fast if they’re going to deliver at home on the continental stage.

São Paulo: Lineup

Forward Andre Silva, who has been on fire for Sao Paulo in the Copa Libertadores with three goals to his name in the competition, suffered a serious knee injury and is most likely ruled out for the rest of the season. A major problem facing Hernan Crespo is their long list of injuries. With Andre out of the season, Neves is most likely to replace him up front. Arboleda is back from injury, and he played in their first leg encounter against LDU Quito. Marcos Antonio also started against LDU Quito last week.

Player to watch out for: Ferreira

With almost half the squad injured, Ferreira remains the man to watch out for in this São Paulo side. The 27-year-old forward has 4 goals and two assists in the league this season. 

🔖 São Paulo probable starting lineup (3-4-1-2)

Rafael— Franco, Arboleda, Ferraresi— Cedric Soares, Pablo Maia, Antonio, Enzo Diaz— Bobadilla— Neves, Ferreira.

⛔️ Out: André Silva, Lucas Moura, Ryan Francisco, Oscar, Calleri, Luiz Gustavo (injured). 

👤 Head coach: Hernan Crespo 

LDU Quito: form and statistics

Form in all competitions: LWWDL

LDU Quito find themselves in a bit of a fix, with two wins in their last five league games across competitions. They come to this game on the back of a 2-4 defeat at home to Universidad Catolica, which happens to be their first home defeat in the league this season. However, they remain firm in third place in the Liga Pro, with 13 wins, 9 draws, and 7 losses from 29 games played.

In the Copa Libertadores, LDU Quito impressed in the group stage, topping Group C with 3 wins, 2 draws, and just a single defeat. They found the net 8 times and conceded only 4 goals across those six games. However, they bounced back to win their round of 16 clash after losing to Botafogo in the first leg, via Guimarães’ lightning-fast first-minute strike in Brazil. The magic happened in Ecuador, where LDU Quito won by 2 goals to nil to secure their qualification to the quarterfinals. 

They faced another Brazilian sensation in the quarterfinals, and this time around, they took the lead after the first leg encounter at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado. A superb strike from Ramirez in the 15th minute gave them the early lead, before Estrada capitalized on Sao Paulo’s defensive error and produced a goal in the 79th minute to give them the win.

LDU Quito: Probable Lineup

Pablo Andres Sanchez needs his best team for this game, and some players were rested over the weekend just for this game. Pablo Sanchez likes to use two forwards up front. Alex Arce has scored four goals so far for LDU in the Copa Libertadores. Richard Mina was sent off in the return leg against Botafogo, and he won't be available for this fixture. 

Pablo Andres will enter this game with a defensive mindset, which is to defend their lead and secure a qualification to the semifinals. Goalkeeper Gonzalo Valle had a great game in the first leg encounter, making crucial saves that gave LDU Quito the lead. 

Player to watch out for: Alex Arce

30-year-old forward Alex Arce is the team's current top scorer in the Copa Libertadores with 4 goals to his name. He also has three goals in the League. 

🔖LDU Quito starting lineup (3-1-4-2)

Gonzalo Valle– Leonel Quinonez, Ricardo Ade, Allala, — Carlos Gruezo, — Quinteros, Villamil, Cornejo, Bryan Ramirez, — Lisandro Alzugaray, Medina 

⛔️Out: Richard Mina

👤Head Coach: Pablo Andres Sanchez 

São Paulo vs LDU Quito: head to head statistics

The teams met twice in the 2020/21 Copa Libertadores Group D, and Sao Paulo won by a 5-4 aggregate score. A 3-0 victory in the first leg for Sao Paulo, and a 4-2 home win for LDU in the return leg. They met again in the quarterfinals of the Copa Sudamericana in the 23/24 season, with LDU advancing to the semifinals on penalties after a 2-2 aggregate draw across both legs. LDU Quito won the first leg by a 2-0 scoreline, and we envisage a tough encounter here on Friday.

São Paulo vs LDU Quito: Betting Tips & Odds

• LDU has not kept a clean sheet in their last four meetings, and the option for Sao Paulo to score is offered on the BetWay bookmaker website for odds of 1.13;
• There has been a total of over 2.5 goals in three of their last five meetings, and the option for a total of over 2.5 goals in this game is offered on the Bet365 bookmaker website for odds of 2.16;
• There has been a minimum of two goals in four of their last five meetings, and this option is offered in the 1xBet bookmaker at 1.63 odds;

São Paulo vs LDU Quito match prediction 26 September 2025

This clash has all the makings of a cracker. São Paulo’s home dominance and attacking depth should fuel a strong response to the two-goal deficit, but LDU’s lead could make them rather conservative in terms of their play, choosing counterattacks and a more defensive approach. With Sao Paulo needing a two-goal swing, expect end-to-end action, with the odds highly stacked on Sao Paulo scoring first. We predict São Paulo advancing on penalties, meaning I see São Paulo scoring at least two goals in this game.

Our match prediction is a total of over 2.5 corners for LDU Quito for a coefficient of 2.00 in the 1xBet bookmaker.

Our betting tip on the match is a win or a draw for Sao Paulo and a total of under 2.5 goals for a coefficient of 1.81 in the Betway bookmaker.

Lastly, a first-half draw for 2.14 odds in the Bet365 bookmaker.