Olympique Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction: Team News, Key Stats, and Expert Picks Football French Ligue 1 Round 5

Marseille
Marseille
Start
Day
Hours
Minutes
Seconds
Finished
Live
22 Sep 2025 21:00
PSG
PSG
Football French Ligue 1 Round 5
Date: 22 September 2025
Kickoff: 21:45 MSK
Venue: Orange Velodrome Marseille France
Raphael George
20 Sep 2025
12:37
All time statistics:
1929
1167
96
60.43%
Statistics
Odds
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Odds 1,89
Bet Type PSG win/Draw & Both Teams to Score
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Olympique Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain: Prediction for the Match on September 21, 2025

This is the fifth round of Ligue 1, and a derby that always brings additional spice: Marseille need to narrow the gap that PSG, who are defending champions and have so far been on cruising mode, have made. So far in the league, PSG have won all their games and they come from a 4-0 Champions League win; thus, they are on top of the betting list. Roberto De Zerbi's Marseille have been fun to watch — they are the kind of team that can score a lot of goals (5-2 vs Paris FC, 4-0 vs Lorient) but are also rocking when they go on the road. Injuries and late fitness decisions (concussion protocols at Marseille; a growing list at PSG) are making each coach's selection so exciting - and also in-play betting markets valuable. The game will start on September 22, 2025, at 20:00 local time (Marseille - CEST) / 19:00 Lagos (WAT).

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Marseille have experienced a rollercoaster of results in the starting weeks: they were defeated by a goal in stoppage time at Rennes (1–0), beat Paris FC 5–2, lost narrowly to Lyon (1–0), then went on to win against Lorient 4–0 before being edged 2–1 at Real Madrid in the Champions League. This blend of results (W–L–L–W–L across the last five competitive matches) tells us that De Zerbi's team are able to find the net — but also be exposed on quick breaks.

From a tactical point of view, De Zerbi prefers a high-intensity, high-possession game with very attacking full-backs and a lot of interchanges between forwards; the three-man midfield (Højbjerg / Kondogbia / Vermeeren) is essential to the balance. Mason Greenwood and Timothy Weah have done well on the wings, Angel Gomes has been the spark and Aubameyang/Gouiri are the sources of goals.

Injuries are the main problem: Nayef Aguerd is undergoing concussion protocol and Hamed Junior Traoré has been given a thigh injury — both were left out of the squad for Madrid — hence the lack of depth at the back and in the middle of the park. OM's good home record is a positive (they have scored without any problem at the Vélodrome), but PSG's condition will make this match a very difficult one for Marseille.

🔁 Predicted Lineup: Gerónimo Rulli, Benjamin Pavard, Leonardo Balerdi, Facundo Medina, Amir Murillo, Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, Arthur Vermeeren, Mason Greenwood, Angel Gomes, Timothy Weah, Amine Gouiri.

🚑 Injuries/Suspension: Nayef Aguerd (concussion), Hamed Junior Traoré (tigh injury)

👨‍✈️ Head Coach: Roberto De Zerbi

PSG started the season perfectly in Ligue 1 (4 wins from 4) and followed with a 4-0 win in the Champions League against Atalanta. The Luis Enrique side operate a high pressing 4-3-3 which is built up from quick vertical passes, width from Barcola and Kvaratskhelia, and a midfield rotation that features Vitinha, Fabián Ruiz and (when fit) João Neves. But the injury list is increasing: Joao Neves has a hamstring issue, Ousmane Dembélé is still on the sidelines, and some squad-members have been carefully managed after Europe’s early fixtures. That situation necessitates tactical flexibility – younger players (Senny Mayulu) and rotation candidates could come in. PSG’s defence has been solid (clean sheets in several recent matches) and their bench quality gives Luis Enrique attacking options. On paper, PSG looks like the favorites, but they will have to manage their minutes after the midweek flight.

🔁 Predicted Lineup: Lucas Chevalier, Achraf Hakimi, Marquinhos, Willian Pacho, Nuno Mendes, Warren Zaïre-Emery, Vitinha, Fabián Ruiz, Bradley Barcola, Gonçalo Ramos, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia

🚑 Injuries/Suspension: João Neves (hamstring), Ousmane Dembélé, Desire Doue. 

👨‍✈️ Head Coach: Luis Enrique

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Recent trend: PSG has largely been the winner of Le Classique in recent seasons. In some previews, it is pointed out that PSG have a consecutive Ligue 1 victories series against Marseille (several media outlets reporting that PSG have won the last 7-9 league meetings depending on the way cup matches are counted). Historically, PSG have a major overall advantage in the record.

  • PSG to win — Paris Saint-Germain remain unbeaten in Ligue 1 and have been very convincing with four wins in the league and a strong showing in the Champions League.
  • Over 2.5 goals — The last games for PSG have been high-scoring (6-3, 4-0) and Marseille have also racked up 5-2 and 4-0 results; Le Classique almost always ends with goals.
  • Gonçalo Ramos anytime scorer / Kvaratskhelia to score or assist — both are in great form and play a central role in PSG’s attack; Ramos scored vs Atalanta (coming off bench) and Kvaratskhelia also got his goal.
  • Both teams to score — Marseille have found the net in their main recent games (Paris FC, Lorient, Real Madrid), however PSG have managed to keep quite a few shutouts.
  • Corner markets: Over (team/total) probable — both teams are playing with their full-backs pushing high and attacking down the wings, thus they have been racking up the number of corners in the last few matches.

This Le Classique has all the ingredients: Marseille’s attacking firepower, PSG’s unbeaten momentum, and the weight of rivalry. Despite OM’s home advantage, PSG’s consistency and firepower make them favourites. Goals look likely, and PSG should edge the night.

Top 3 Bet Recommendations:-

PSG win/Draw & Both Teams to Score @ 1.89 odds on 1xbet 

PSG to Win @ 1.937 odds on Bet365

Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.6 odds on Betway 

⚠️⚠️Disclaimer: Betting odds and lines are subject to change. Please check with your bookmaker for the latest prices before placing any wagers.

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Odds 1,89
Bet Type PSG win/Draw & Both Teams to Score
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Odds 1,937
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