Stadium: Holstein-Stadion (Kiel)
04.12.2025 16:30
There are derbies built on history, and others forged by necessity. This Saturday’s meeting between Holstein Kiel and St. Pauli is a little of both — a northern clash laced with urgency, where points matter more than pride. With both clubs embroiled in the lower half of the 2. Bundesliga table, this isn’t just a fixture. It’s a referendum on survival.
For Kiel, this is make-or-break. Rooted to the foot of the table and with morale sinking faster than their defensive line on a counterattack, they’ve become the team everyone expects to beat — and that’s exactly the sort of reputation they’ll want to shatter on home soil. Lose here, and the sand in their survival hourglass begins to run out.
St. Pauli, meanwhile, arrive not as giants, but as a side who’ve steadied the ship — just. That 3-1 win over Kiel earlier in the season will give them a psychological edge, but they know all too well how thin the line is between resurgence and relapse. This is a test of grit, of composure, and of who blinks first under pressure.
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Kiel’s season has spiraled into something grim. The 3-0 thumping by Werder Bremen last weekend wasn’t just a loss — it was a confirmation of their fragility. They’ve now lost four of their last five, scoring just twice in that stretch. The once energetic pressing game that defined them earlier in the season has become disjointed and weary, the confidence long gone.
But buried within the wreckage are flashes of something more promising. Steven Skrzybski remains one of their few bright spots, and when given the freedom to roam, he can still create danger. Yet even the best creators need a system that works, and right now, Kiel are leaking goals too quickly to build any momentum. The home crowd may roar, but belief will need to come from within.
St Pauli
St. Pauli don’t travel with swagger, but they do carry a sense of control — something Kiel clearly lack. They’ve tightened up in recent weeks and showed against Schalke and Magdeburg that they can hold their nerve in cagey contests. But that doesn’t mean they’re the finished article — far from it. The margins remain fine, especially away from Hamburg, where their record is unconvincing.
Still, when these two met in November, it was St. Pauli who dictated proceedings. Burkardt’s brace that night didn’t just earn three points — it was a tactical masterclass in patience and pressure. If they can summon a similar performance, particularly through the midfield where they hold the upper hand, they’ll feel confident about inflicting more misery on their hosts.
History of Head-to-Heads
Club Friendlies 2025 
St. Pauli
Bundesliga 2024/2025
St. Pauli
Bundesliga 2024/2025
Holstein Kiel
2. Bundesliga 2023/2024
St. Pauli
2. Bundesliga 2023/2024
Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel Latest Games
Holstein Kiel 
Holstein Kiel
Silkeborg
Holstein Kiel
AGF
St. Pauli
Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel
Freiburg
Holstein Kiel
St. Pauli Latest Games
St. Pauli 
St. Pauli
St. Pauli
Union Berlin
St. Pauli
Borussia Moenchengladbach
Hoffenheim
St. Pauli
Hoffenheim
St. Pauli
Bayer Leverkusen
Expert Betting Tips
This isn’t likely to be pretty. Two teams fighting for oxygen rarely create open classics. But there’s a difference in control here — St. Pauli is flawed, yes, but they know how to manage a lead. Kiel? They’ve forgotten how to hold one. If it comes down to game management, the visitors have the edge.
Final prediction: Holstein Kiel 0 - 2 St. Pauli
Not a hammering, not a spectacle, just a calculated performance that puts daylight between one team and the drop, while plunging the other further into the dark.
Below are my predictions for the game:
My first prediction is under 2.5 goals for odds of 1.86 at Betway
My second prediction is W2 to win for odds of 2.39 at Bet365
My final prediction is No BTTS for odds of 2.05 at 1XBet
Other predictions
